Tuesday, April 7
15 games · full slate
Game Recaps
St. Louis Cardinals (STL)
@
Washington Nationals (WSH)
Nationals Park
STL
7
WSH
6
Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD)
@
Toronto Blue Jays (TOR)
Rogers Centre
LAD
4
TOR
1
Seattle Mariners (SEA)
@
Texas Rangers (TEX)
Globe Life Field
SEA
2
TEX
3
Chicago Cubs (CHC)
@
Tampa Bay Rays (TB)
Tropicana Field
CHC
9
TB
2
Philadelphia Phillies (PHI)
@
San Francisco Giants (SF)
Oracle Park
PHI
0
SF
6
San Diego Padres (SD)
@
Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT)
PNC Park
SD
1
PIT
7
Athletics (ATH)
@
New York Yankees (NYY)
Yankee Stadium
ATH
3
NYY
5
Arizona Diamondbacks (ARI)
@
New York Mets (NYM)
Citi Field
ARI
3
NYM
4
Detroit Tigers (DET)
@
Minnesota Twins (MIN)
Target Field
DET
2
MIN
4
Cincinnati Reds (CIN)
@
Miami Marlins (MIA)
loanDepot park
CIN
6
MIA
3
Atlanta Braves (ATL)
@
Los Angeles Angels (LAA)
Angel Stadium
ATL
7
LAA
2
Houston Astros (HOU)
@
Colorado Rockies (COL)
Coors Field
HOU
1
COL
5
Kansas City Royals (KC)
@
Cleveland Guardians (CLE)
Progressive Field
KC
1
CLE
2
Baltimore Orioles (BAL)
@
Chicago White Sox (CWS)
Rate Field
BAL
4
CWS
2
Milwaukee Brewers (MIL)
@
Boston Red Sox (BOS)
Fenway Park
MIL
2
BOS
3
Rolling Performance Tables
Bullpen Rankings
7d · 14d · 28d ERA · FIP · K% · row color = signal
📊 Sorted by 7d ERA — Lower ERA = better bullpen right now.
📅 7d / 14d / 28d ERA — earned run average over each rolling window.
🔬 FIP — Removes luck and defense. ERA above FIP by 1.0+ means bullpen is due to improve.
⚡ K% — strikeout rate. Higher is better.
📈 Mom. — momentum. 28d rank minus 7d rank. Positive = bullpen trending up vs season baseline. Negative = declining.
🎯 Signal — Value = bullpen is trending up but market hasn't priced it in yet — target these teams. Fade = bullpen trending down — avoid backing them. Watch = mixed signals, monitor before acting.
| # | Team | 7d ERA | FIP | Mom. | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 0.77 | 1.82 | 0 | Neutral |
| 2 | NYM | 0.77 | 2.67 | 0 | Neutral |
| 3 | COL | 1.57 | 1.88 | +6 | Value |
| 4 | SEA | 1.66 | 2.43 | +1 | Neutral |
| 5 | PHI | 1.74 | 1.84 | +12 | Value |
| 6 | DET | 1.80 | 3.55 | +9 | Value |
| 7 | TEX | 2.05 | 3.97 | -4 | Watch |
| 8 | CIN | 2.22 | 3.20 | -2 | Neutral |
| 9 | CLE | 2.76 | 3.84 | +4 | Watch |
| 10 | BAL | 2.79 | 4.25 | +9 | Neutral |
| 11 | PIT | 2.90 | 2.87 | 0 | Neutral |
| 12 | MIL | 3.25 | 3.64 | -8 | Fade |
| 13 | BOS | 3.32 | 4.12 | +5 | Value |
| 14 | CWS | 3.39 | 4.74 | +11 | Neutral |
| 15 | LAD | 3.55 | 3.84 | -8 | Fade |
| 16 | SD | 3.58 | 2.48 | -2 | Neutral |
| 17 | CHC | 3.81 | 4.53 | -1 | Neutral |
| 18 | LAA | 3.98 | 3.76 | -8 | Fade |
| 19 | MIN | 3.99 | 5.02 | +1 | Neutral |
| 20 | STL | 5.02 | 6.09 | +3 | Watch |
| 21 | NYY | 5.06 | 1.92 | -13 | Fade |
| 22 | ARI | 5.50 | 4.58 | +2 | Neutral |
| 23 | TOR | 5.87 | 4.98 | +4 | Watch |
| 24 | MIA | 6.26 | 5.45 | -12 | Fade |
| 25 | TB | 6.65 | 4.88 | +5 | Value |
| 26 | KC | 6.67 | 6.62 | +3 | Watch |
| 27 | SF | 6.95 | 4.92 | -6 | Fade |
| 28 | ATH | 8.07 | 6.19 | -6 | Neutral |
| 29 | HOU | 9.00 | 7.14 | -1 | Neutral |
| 30 | WSH | 9.00 | 8.87 | -4 | Watch |
SP Rotation Rankings
7d · 14d · 28d ERA · FIP · K-BB% · row color = signal
📊 Sorted by FIP — better predictor of future ERA than ERA itself. High ERA + low FIP = ERA likely to drop.
📅 7d / 14d / 28d ERA — earned run average over each rolling window.
🔬 FIP — Strips out defense and luck. The core metric for SP valuation.
⚡ K-BB% — strikeouts minus walks per batter faced. Above 15% = strong. Below 8% = concern.
🚶 WHIP — Measures baserunner control and game flow impact.
📈 Mom. — momentum. 28d rank minus 7d rank. Positive = rotation outperforming season baseline recently.
🎯 Signal — Value = rotation trending up, opposing hitters may be overpriced. Fade = rotation trending down, avoid backing this staff. Watch = early signs of a trend — monitor before committing.
| # | Team | 7d ERA | FIP | Mom. | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SD | 3.37 | 2.28 | +10 | Value |
| 2 | NYM | 3.34 | 2.33 | +6 | Neutral |
| 3 | MIN | 4.00 | 2.49 | +1 | Neutral |
| 4 | CLE | 0.94 | 2.51 | +13 | Value |
| 5 | LAA | 3.23 | 2.65 | +4 | Watch |
| 6 | NYY | 3.61 | 2.66 | -5 | Fade |
| 7 | PHI | 3.62 | 2.70 | 0 | Neutral |
| 8 | TB | 3.00 | 2.77 | +2 | Neutral |
| 9 | BOS | 5.35 | 2.86 | +6 | Value |
| 10 | PIT | 2.79 | 2.91 | -5 | Fade |
| 11 | SEA | 3.13 | 2.94 | -8 | Fade |
| 12 | CIN | 2.33 | 3.04 | +10 | Neutral |
| 13 | TOR | 4.42 | 3.10 | -11 | Fade |
| 14 | BAL | 4.39 | 3.17 | 0 | Neutral |
| 15 | MIL | 3.30 | 3.28 | +11 | Value |
| 16 | DET | 5.05 | 3.30 | -4 | Watch |
| 17 | SF | 4.05 | 3.30 | -11 | Fade |
| 18 | HOU | 5.14 | 3.31 | +1 | Neutral |
| 19 | KC | 3.41 | 3.38 | +5 | Value |
| 20 | TEX | 4.35 | 3.45 | -7 | Fade |
| 21 | CWS | 4.29 | 3.51 | -5 | Fade |
| 22 | CHC | 1.49 | 3.68 | -4 | Watch |
| 23 | ATL | 2.86 | 3.87 | -2 | Neutral |
| 24 | MIA | 3.41 | 4.18 | -1 | Neutral |
| 25 | LAD | 4.27 | 4.35 | -5 | Fade |
| 26 | ARI | 1.94 | 4.40 | -1 | Neutral |
| 27 | WSH | 6.52 | 5.10 | +1 | Neutral |
| 28 | COL | 5.82 | 5.15 | -1 | Neutral |
| 29 | ATH | 5.83 | 5.41 | +1 | Neutral |
| 30 | STL | 5.90 | 5.96 | -1 | Neutral |
Team Batting Rankings
7d · 14d · 28d R/G · OPS · wRC+ · row color = signal
📊 Sorted by 7d R/G — runs per game over the last 7 days.
📅 7d / 14d / 28d R/G — runs per game over each rolling window.
💥 OPS — Captures both contact quality and power in one number.
🎯 wRC+ — park-adjusted runs created. 100 = league average. 110 = 10% above average.
📈 Mom. — momentum. 28d rank minus 7d rank. Positive = offense trending up.
🎯 Signal — Value = offense is heating up and likely underpriced by the market — look at their overs. Fade = offense is cooling — avoid their run totals. Watch = trending but not confirmed yet.
| # | Team | 7d R/G | OPS | wRC+ | Mom. | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAD | 8.33 | 0.813 | 174 | 0 | Neutral |
| 2 | NYY | 6.60 | 0.693 | 121 | +3 | Watch |
| 3 | HOU | 6.50 | 0.853 | 142 | -1 | Neutral |
| 4 | WSH | 6.17 | 0.786 | 134 | -1 | Neutral |
| 5 | ATL | 5.57 | 0.760 | 109 | +1 | Neutral |
| 6 | ATH | 5.40 | 0.612 | 124 | +7 | Value |
| 7 | MIN | 5.29 | 0.670 | 94 | +5 | Value |
| 8 | MIL | 5.17 | 0.816 | 115 | -4 | Watch |
| 9 | NYM | 5.17 | 0.689 | 110 | -2 | Neutral |
| 10 | PIT | 5.17 | 0.720 | 119 | +1 | Neutral |
| 11 | MIA | 4.83 | 0.790 | 91 | -1 | Neutral |
| 12 | BOS | 4.33 | 0.664 | 80 | +9 | Value |
| 13 | SD | 4.33 | 0.589 | 90 | +10 | Value |
| 14 | STL | 4.33 | 0.652 | 86 | -6 | Neutral |
| 15 | PHI | 4.17 | 0.699 | 99 | +3 | Watch |
| 16 | TB | 4.17 | 0.736 | 93 | -7 | Fade |
| 17 | DET | 3.83 | 0.669 | 108 | -3 | Watch |
| 18 | KC | 3.71 | 0.699 | 116 | +7 | Value |
| 19 | BAL | 3.67 | 0.701 | 112 | +1 | Neutral |
| 20 | COL | 3.67 | 0.622 | 75 | -3 | Watch |
| 21 | CHC | 3.50 | 0.652 | 73 | -6 | Fade |
| 22 | CIN | 3.33 | 0.624 | 63 | +4 | Watch |
| 23 | LAA | 3.33 | 0.646 | 43 | -7 | Fade |
| 24 | SF | 3.29 | 0.584 | 68 | +4 | Watch |
| 25 | SEA | 2.67 | 0.629 | 51 | -1 | Neutral |
| 26 | ARI | 2.33 | 0.658 | 44 | -4 | Watch |
| 27 | CLE | 2.00 | 0.620 | 86 | +3 | Watch |
| 28 | CWS | 2.00 | 0.623 | 46 | -1 | Neutral |
| 29 | TEX | 2.00 | 0.705 | 54 | -10 | Fade |
| 30 | TOR | 1.17 | 0.701 | 42 | -1 | Neutral |
Top Edge Signals
Signals extracted from rolling tables above. Data observations only — not betting recommendations.
Strongest signal
DET
Value
VALUE: The Detroit bullpen has been really tough to score against over the last week, giving up almost no runs. They have been one of the better relief groups in baseball recently. Back Detroit when their bullpen is in a position to close out games.
NYY
Fade
FADE: The Yankees bullpen has been letting a lot of runs score this week, and they have only converted 60% of their save chances. Their relief group has been much worse lately than they were over the past month. Avoid backing New York when the game is in the hands of their bullpen.
SF
Fade
FADE: The Giants bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball lately, giving up nearly 7 runs per 9 innings this week. They are also ranked 27th in the league over that stretch. Avoid San Francisco in games where their relief pitchers will be heavily involved.
TB
Value
WATCH: The Tampa Bay bullpen has struggled badly over the last week and even worse over the past month, ranking dead last in baseball over that longer stretch. The numbers are rough right now, but the signal says this group may be turning a corner. Keep an eye on them before backing Tampa Bay in close games.
CLE
Value
VALUE: Cleveland starters have been dominant this week, allowing less than one run per game on average. They are keeping hitters off base at one of the best rates in baseball right now. Back the Guardians when they have a starter going this week.
BOS
Value
VALUE: Boston starters have been pitching much better than the runs they have allowed this week would suggest. They have been facing a tough schedule and still holding their own. Back the Red Sox rotation as a value play this week.
SD
Value
VALUE: The Padres rotation has been the best in baseball this week, ranking first overall among starting staffs. They are keeping runners off base and pitching with real consistency. Back San Diego when their starters are on the mound.
TOR
Fade
FADE: Toronto starters have been solid over the past month, ranking second in baseball, but this week they have slipped and the team is losing momentum fast. The recent slide is hard to ignore given how negative their momentum has been. Fade the Blue Jays starters until they show signs of getting back on track.
BOS
Value
WATCH: The Boston offense has not been great lately, scoring just over 4 runs a game against a tough schedule. Their overall hitting numbers are below average right now. They are worth watching to see if the bats wake up, but hold off on backing them purely for their offense.
SD
Value
WATCH: The Padres offense has been modest lately, averaging just over 4 runs a game with below-average hitting numbers. The good news is their pitching has been carrying them this week. Back San Diego for their pitching, but do not expect the lineup to carry the load on its own right now.
Injury & Lineup Log
| Player | Team | Status | Injury | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vasil | CWS | 10-day IL | 15-day IL — Tommy John surgery recovery | Chicago White Sox placed RHP Mike Vasil on the 15-day injured list. Tommy John surgery recovery. |
| Paxton Schultz | WSH | 10-day IL | 15-day IL | Washington Nationals activated RHP Paxton Schultz from the 15-day injured list. |
| Orion Kerkering | PHI | 10-day IL | 15-day IL | Philadelphia Phillies activated RHP Orion Kerkering from the 15-day injured list. |
| Austin Hays | CWS | 10-day IL | 10-day IL — Right hamstring strain | Chicago White Sox placed LF Austin Hays on the 10-day injured list. Right hamstring strain. |
| Carlos Santana | ARI | 10-day IL | 10-day IL — Strained right adductor | Arizona Diamondbacks placed 1B Carlos Santana on the 10-day injured list retroactive to April 6, 2026. Strained right adductor. |
| Gabriel Arias | CLE | 10-day IL | 10-day IL — Left hamdsring strain | Cleveland Guardians placed SS Gabriel Arias on the 10-day injured list. Left hamdsring strain. |
| Zach Eflin | BAL | 60-day IL | 60-day IL — Right elbow discomfort | Baltimore Orioles transferred RHP Zach Eflin from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Right elbow discomfort. |
| Jordan Lawlar | ARI | 60-day IL | 60-day IL — Right wrist fracture | Arizona Diamondbacks transferred SS Jordan Lawlar from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Right wrist fracture. |
| Mike Vasil | CWS | 60-day IL | 60-day IL — Tommy John surgery recovery | Chicago White Sox transferred RHP Mike Vasil from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Tommy John surgery recovery. |
| Gunnar Hoglund | ATH | 60-day IL | 60-day IL — Sprained right knee | Athletics transferred RHP Gunnar Hoglund from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Sprained right knee. |
Free Tool · mlb.up.railway.app
MLB Stats Tracker
The individual player layer behind this newsletter. Look up any batter or pitcher on today's slate with rolling performance windows and color-coded thresholds.
⚾ Batters — AVG / OBP / SLG / HR / K / RBI over last 7, 10, or 21 games with at least one at-bat
⚾ Pitchers — ERA / WHIP / K / BB over last 2, 3, or 4 starts
🔄 Cache refreshes at 6AM PT daily
Methodology
Rolling windows — 7, 14, and 28-day stats from completed games only. Postponed games excluded.
Momentum — rank_28d minus rank_7d. Positive = outperforming recent baseline. Negative = declining.
Schedule strength — avg opponent quality over window. Easy / Avg / Hard. Value on Hard schedule is stronger.
ERA-FIP gap — ERA minus FIP. Gap over 1.0 = ERA likely to regress down (unlucky). Under -1.0 = may regress up.
Signals — Value = momentum +5 or more on Avg/Hard. Fade = -5 or worse on Easy/Avg. Watch = divergence of 3–4.
V1 note: Straight rolling ERA with no leverage weighting. Leverage-weighted bullpen ERA planned for V2.
Compass publishes statistical analysis and data signals for informational purposes only. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes betting advice or a recommendation to wager. Sports betting involves significant financial risk — please gamble responsibly.