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Monday, April 13 10 games · full slate
Game Recaps
Cleveland Guardians (CLE) @ St. Louis Cardinals (STL)
Busch Stadium
CLE
9
STL
3
CLE Starter
Gavin Williams
5.0 IP · 5 H · 2 ER · 4 K · 2 BB · 93 PC
CLE Batters
Brayan Rocchio 2-3 (1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB)
Angel Martínez 2-5 (1 HR, 1 RBI)
Steven Kwan 2-5 (2 RBI)
Insight
Cleveland's offense did the heavy lifting tonight, with Brayan Rocchio, Angel Martinez, and Steven Kwan all contributing multi-hit games in the 9-3 win. The offense has been rolling lately and showed up again here.
STL Starter
Matthew Liberatore
5.0 IP · 6 H · 4 ER · 2 K · 3 BB · 105 PC
STL Batters
Jordan Walker 2-5 (1 HR, 1 RBI)
Alec Burleson 2-5 (1 RBI)
Insight
Matthew Liberatore gave up 4 runs in 5 innings and the Cardinals couldn't recover, dropping this one 9-3. After back-to-back strong starts, this was a step in the wrong direction for him.
Houston Astros (HOU) @ Seattle Mariners (SEA)
T-Mobile Park
HOU
2
SEA
6
HOU Starter
Mike Burrows
6.0 IP · 11 H · 6 ER · 3 K · 1 BB · 98 PC
HOU Batters
Isaac Paredes 2-4
Insight
Mike Burrows got hit hard, giving up 6 runs on 11 hits in 6 innings, and Houston's offense couldn't bail him out in a 6-2 loss.
SEA Starter
George Kirby
7.7 IP · 7 H · 2 ER · 6 K · 1 BB · 99 PC
SEA Batters
Josh Naylor 2-4 (2 HR, 5 RBI)
Luke Raley 3-4 (1 RBI)
Brendan Donovan 2-4 (1 BB)
Insight
Josh Naylor was the story tonight, going 2-for-4 with two home runs and 5 RBI to carry Seattle's offense. George Kirby went nearly 8 innings and only gave up 2 runs, continuing to be a reliable arm for the Mariners.
Washington Nationals (WSH) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT)
PNC Park
WSH
5
PIT
16
WSH Starter
Cade Cavalli
1.3 IP · 3 H · 4 ER · 2 K · 3 BB · 48 PC
WSH Batters
Daylen Lile 2-4 (1 R)
Insight
Cade Cavalli got knocked out after just 1.3 innings, giving up 4 runs on 3 hits and 3 walks, and Washington got blown out 16-5. The offense has been struggling lately and this one was over early.
PIT Starter
Paul Skenes
6.0 IP · 1 H · 1 ER · 6 K · 1 BB · 88 PC
PIT Batters
Brandon Lowe 3-5 (1 HR, 5 RBI)
Bryan Reynolds 3-4 (4 RBI)
Spencer Horwitz 2-4 (1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB)
Insight
Paul Skenes was dealing tonight, going 6 innings and allowing just 1 hit and 1 run while striking out 6. Brandon Lowe and Bryan Reynolds combined for 6 RBI as Pittsburgh exploded for 16 runs.
Chicago Cubs (CHC) @ Philadelphia Phillies (PHI)
Citizens Bank Park
CHC
7
PHI
13
CHC Starter
Javier Assad
4.3 IP · 11 H · 9 ER · 3 K · 2 BB · 82 PC
CHC Batters
Moisés Ballesteros 2-2 (1 RBI)
Ian Happ 2-5 (1 R)
Miguel Amaya 2-4 (1 R)
Insight
Javier Assad had a nightmare outing, giving up 9 runs on 11 hits in just 4.3 innings after shutting out opponents in his last start. Chicago's offense has been trending up but couldn't overcome the early hole.
PHI Starter
Cristopher Sánchez
6.0 IP · 6 H · 2 ER · 8 K · 3 BB · 96 PC
PHI Batters
Kyle Schwarber 2-3 (2 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB)
J.T. Realmuto 3-5 (3 RBI)
Brandon Marsh 3-4 (2 RBI, 1 BB)
Insight
Kyle Schwarber went 2-for-3 with two home runs and 3 RBI, and Cristopher Sanchez struck out 8 over 6 solid innings to help Philly cruise to a 13-7 win. Sanchez has now allowed 2 runs or fewer in all three of his last starts.
Los Angeles Angels (LAA) @ New York Yankees (NYY)
Yankee Stadium
LAA
10
NYY
11
LAA Starter
Yusei Kikuchi
3.3 IP · 4 H · 4 ER · 3 K · 4 BB · 82 PC
LAA Batters
Mike Trout 2-5 (2 HR, 5 RBI)
Jorge Soler 2-5 (1 RBI)
Jo Adell 2-4 (1 RBI)
Insight
Mike Trout went 2-for-5 with two home runs and 5 RBI, but the Angels bullpen couldn't hold on and Los Angeles fell 11-10 in a wild one.
NYY Starter
Will Warren
3.7 IP · 3 H · 0 ER · 6 K · 1 BB · 89 PC
NYY Batters
Trent Grisham 2-3 (2 HR, 5 RBI)
Aaron Judge 2-5 (2 HR, 3 RBI)
José Caballero 2-5 (1 HR, 2 RBI)
Insight
Trent Grisham and Aaron Judge each went deep twice, combining for 8 RBI to lead the Yankees to an 11-10 win. This was a needed offensive night for New York, whose offense had been trending down lately.
Boston Red Sox (BOS) @ Minnesota Twins (MIN)
Target Field
BOS
6
MIN
13
BOS Starter
Garrett Crochet
1.7 IP · 9 H · 10 ER · 0 K · 3 BB · 55 PC
BOS Batters
Caleb Durbin 2-5 (1 RBI)
Wilyer Abreu 2-3 (1 RBI, 1 BB)
Insight
Garrett Crochet got rocked, giving up 10 runs on 9 hits in just 1.7 innings in one of his worst outings of the season. Boston's offense had been trending up but it didn't matter after that kind of start.
MIN Starter
Bailey Ober
6.0 IP · 7 H · 4 ER · 7 K · 1 BB · 95 PC
MIN Batters
Ryan Jeffers 3-4 (1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB)
Byron Buxton 2-5 (1 HR, 1 RBI)
Insight
Ryan Jeffers went 3-for-4 with a homer and 3 RBI to lead Minnesota to a big 13-6 win. The Twins did the damage despite their offense being in a bit of a murky stretch lately.
New York Mets (NYM) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD)
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
NYM
0
LAD
4
NYM Starter
David Peterson
5.0 IP · 5 H · 4 ER · 7 K · 4 BB · 89 PC
NYM Batters
Nothing Noteworthy
Insight
The Mets got shut out 4-0 and were held to just two hits all game, continuing a rough stretch for an offense that has been trending down lately.
LAD Starter
Justin Wrobleski
8.0 IP · 2 H · 0 ER · 2 K · 0 BB · 90 PC
LAD Batters
Miguel Rojas 3-4
Freddie Freeman 2-4 (1 R)
Insight
Justin Wrobleski was absolutely dominant, going 8 innings and allowing just 2 hits and no runs on 90 pitches. Miguel Rojas went 3-for-4 to pace the offense in a clean 4-0 win.
Arizona Diamondbacks (ARI) @ Baltimore Orioles (BAL)
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
ARI
7
BAL
9
ARI Starter
Ryne Nelson
5.3 IP · 3 H · 1 ER · 7 K · 2 BB · 92 PC
ARI Batters
Nolan Arenado 2-4 (2 HR, 5 RBI)
Ketel Marte 2-5 (2 HR, 2 RBI)
Ildemaro Vargas 2-4 (1 R)
Insight
Nolan Arenado and Ketel Marte each hit two home runs, combining for 7 RBI, but it wasn't enough as Arizona lost 9-7.
BAL Starter
Dean Kremer
5.0 IP · 6 H · 2 ER · 9 K · 0 BB · 80 PC
BAL Batters
Jeremiah Jackson 3-4 (2 HR, 5 RBI)
Pete Alonso 2-3 (1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB)
Insight
Jeremiah Jackson was the difference-maker for Baltimore, going 3-for-4 with two home runs and 5 RBI in the 9-7 win. Pete Alonso also chipped in with a homer and 2 RBI.
Miami Marlins (MIA) @ Atlanta Braves (ATL)
Truist Park
MIA
10
ATL
4
MIA Starter
Eury Pérez
4.0 IP · 7 H · 3 ER · 2 K · 2 BB · 76 PC
MIA Batters
Agustín Ramírez 3-4 (1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB)
Liam Hicks 3-4 (3 RBI)
Connor Norby 2-5 (1 HR, 2 RBI)
Insight
Agustin Ramirez went 3-for-4 with a homer and 4 RBI, and Liam Hicks added 3 more RBI as Miami rolled to a 10-4 win. The Marlins offense showed up big even though it had been in a bit of a down stretch lately.
ATL Starter
Grant Holmes
4.0 IP · 3 H · 3 ER · 3 K · 2 BB · 59 PC
ATL Batters
Matt Olson 2-5 (1 R)
Michael Harris II 2-3 (1 BB)
Insight
Grant Holmes only lasted 4 innings and gave up 3 runs early, and Atlanta's offense couldn't generate much in a 10-4 loss. The Braves offense has been inconsistent lately and this was another flat night.
Texas Rangers (TEX) @ Athletics (ATH)
Sutter Health Park
TEX
8
ATH
1
TEX Starter
Nathan Eovaldi
7.0 IP · 3 H · 0 ER · 7 K · 2 BB · 84 PC
TEX Batters
Jake Burger 2-4 (2 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB)
Joc Pederson 3-5 (1 R)
Kyle Higashioka 2-4 (1 R, 1 BB)
Insight
Nathan Eovaldi bounced back in a big way, going 7 scoreless innings on just 84 pitches after back-to-back rough outings. Jake Burger did the damage at the plate with two home runs and 4 RBI in an 8-1 Texas win.
ATH Starter
Luis Severino
6.0 IP · 6 H · 4 ER · 7 K · 3 BB · 94 PC
ATH Batters
Shea Langeliers 2-4
Insight
Luis Severino gave up 4 runs in 6 innings and Oakland's offense managed just 1 run in the 8-1 loss.
Rolling Performance Tables
Bullpen Rankings
📊 Sorted by 7d ERA
📅 7d / 14d / 28d ERA — Rolling ERA.
🔬 FIP — Removes luck and defense. If the ERA > FIP then the bullpen should get better.
⚡ K% — Strikeout rate. Higher is better.
📈 Mom. — Momentum. (28d rank - 7d rank). Positive = bullpen trending up. Negative = Declining.
🎯 Signal — Value = Target these teams. Fade = Avoid. Watch = mixed signals, watchlist.
# Team 7d ERA 14d 28d FIP K% Mom. Signal
1 TOR 0.78 3.42 4.82 1.32 36.0% +21 Value
2 DET 1.57 3.26 3.25 4.09 17.9% +6 Value
3 SEA 1.69 1.50 2.05 3.98 14.7% -2 Neutral
4 MIA 2.07 3.11 2.55 2.27 29.6% -1 Neutral
5 BOS 2.61 3.54 3.66 5.18 22.5% +7 Value
6 BAL 2.92 4.06 3.83 3.79 25.1% +9 Neutral
7 CIN 2.96 3.04 2.89 4.96 18.5% -2 Neutral
8 PHI 3.09 2.62 3.75 1.64 26.8% +6 Value
9 CHC 3.13 3.36 3.42 2.62 24.7% +1 Neutral
10 SD 3.20 3.18 3.13 2.11 23.7% -3 Watch
11 ATH 3.32 4.72 4.35 2.65 29.2% +7 Neutral
12 ARI 3.58 4.48 5.38 3.45 25.9% +13 Neutral
13 TEX 3.60 3.12 2.43 4.50 18.2% -11 Fade
14 STL 3.75 4.30 5.26 3.02 21.6% +10 Value
15 SF 3.83 5.62 4.63 4.38 24.5% +5 Neutral
16 KC 4.20 5.64 5.90 3.41 20.0% +11 Neutral
17 LAD 4.24 4.10 3.33 3.57 27.8% -8 Fade
18 NYY 4.32 4.88 3.68 3.76 18.0% -5 Fade
19 NYM 4.44 3.15 2.84 2.36 21.4% -15 Fade
20 CWS 4.60 4.11 5.70 3.61 21.6% +6 Neutral
21 COL 4.71 3.80 3.83 5.91 13.2% -5 Neutral
22 TB 4.84 5.61 6.36 5.03 17.8% +6 Value
23 PIT 5.47 4.39 4.21 4.41 21.9% -6 Neutral
24 MIL 5.62 4.46 3.50 3.64 11.4% -13 Neutral
25 CLE 5.71 5.01 4.50 3.26 22.3% -6 Neutral
26 ATL 5.87 3.42 2.99 3.53 21.5% -20 Neutral
27 HOU 6.51 7.37 6.57 5.60 18.6% +2 Neutral
28 MIN 6.55 5.24 5.18 3.87 16.8% -5 Fade
29 WSH 7.27 7.68 6.72 6.20 20.7% +1 Neutral
30 LAA 8.11 5.61 4.74 6.83 18.1% -9 Neutral
SP Rotation Rankings
📊 Sorted by FIP — Better predictor of future ERA. High ERA + low FIP = ERA likely to drop.
📅 7d / 14d / 28d ERA — Rolling ERA.
🔬 FIP — Strips out defense and luck. Future predictor for ERA.
⚡ K-BB% — Strikeouts - Walks per batter faced. If > 15% = Good. < 8% = Bad.
🚶 WHIP — Measures baserunner control and game flow impact.
📈 Mom. — momentum. 28d rank minus 7d rank. Positive = rotation outperforming season baseline recently.
🎯 Signal — Value = Rotation trending up. Fade = Rotation trending down. Watch = Watchlist.
# Team 7d ERA 14d 28d FIP K-BB% WHIP Mom. Signal
1 NYY 3.52 3.05 2.56 1.93 20.7% 1.15 0 Neutral
2 DET 3.99 3.99 3.90 2.45 15.8% 1.30 +1 Neutral
3 KC 2.73 3.20 2.88 2.80 17.3% 1.03 +10 Neutral
4 MIL 4.81 3.78 4.16 2.95 15.0% 1.21 +19 Value
5 MIN 3.38 3.87 3.67 2.95 16.9% 1.15 -1 Neutral
6 PHI 4.70 3.96 4.55 3.17 17.8% 1.50 0 Neutral
7 BAL 3.06 3.67 3.82 3.22 19.0% 1.39 +5 Neutral
8 SD 2.64 3.41 3.67 3.23 22.5% 0.91 +2 Neutral
9 CWS 1.58 3.04 3.91 3.24 14.4% 0.92 +2 Neutral
10 SEA 4.25 4.07 3.42 3.27 13.2% 1.19 -8 Fade
11 TB 4.18 3.29 3.40 3.40 14.1% 1.18 -3 Watch
12 SF 2.78 3.95 4.06 3.65 9.8% 1.20 -5 Neutral
13 PIT 1.59 2.10 2.66 3.69 15.8% 0.91 -8 Neutral
14 ARI 3.26 3.12 3.27 3.90 14.4% 1.29 +8 Neutral
15 LAD 2.50 3.23 3.44 4.04 14.1% 0.94 +4 Watch
16 NYM 5.98 4.49 4.24 4.05 12.1% 1.53 -7 Fade
17 BOS 4.31 5.40 4.97 4.19 6.5% 1.41 0 Neutral
18 ATH 2.86 4.10 4.51 4.24 12.8% 1.14 +11 Neutral
19 CLE 4.35 2.85 3.53 4.25 14.0% 1.33 -4 Watch
20 CHC 5.34 3.76 4.14 4.32 14.0% 1.25 -2 Neutral
21 TEX 3.03 3.89 3.93 4.35 19.0% 1.19 -7 Fade
22 STL 5.52 5.10 5.06 4.55 5.8% 1.45 +5 Value
23 ATL 2.60 3.32 2.87 4.80 9.8% 1.25 -3 Watch
24 LAA 5.98 3.86 4.54 4.88 7.8% 1.50 -8 Neutral
25 MIA 4.81 4.40 4.67 4.96 9.2% 1.42 0 Neutral
26 COL 3.91 5.09 4.81 5.32 10.4% 1.17 +2 Neutral
27 CIN 9.14 5.88 4.97 5.99 -2.2% 2.27 -1 Neutral
28 WSH 4.81 5.99 5.67 6.06 -0.9% 1.60 +2 Neutral
29 TOR 9.45 6.71 5.29 6.57 7.6% 1.78 -8 Neutral
30 HOU 10.56 6.76 6.43 6.68 0.0% 2.29 -6 Neutral
Team Batting Rankings
📊 Sorted by 7d R/G
📅 7d / 14d / 28d R/G — Runs per game over each rolling window.
💥 OPS — Metric for contact quality and power. If > .800 = Good. If < .670 = Bad
🎯 wRC+ — Measures offense against the league average. 100 = league average. 110 = 10% above average.
📈 Mom. — Momentum. 28d rank - 7d rank. Positive = Offense trending up.
🎯 Signal — Value = Offense is hot. Fade = Offense is cold. Watch = Watchlist.
# Team 7d R/G 14d 28d OPS wRC+ Mom. Signal
1 ATL 7.17 5.92 5.53 0.768 144 +3 Watch
2 MIN 6.71 6.15 5.41 0.687 136 +3 Watch
3 PIT 6.17 5.75 5.12 0.713 115 +4 Watch
4 SD 6.17 5.42 4.62 0.640 123 +8 Value
5 LAA 6.00 4.67 4.88 0.667 124 +3 Watch
6 BAL 5.50 4.67 4.31 0.707 125 +8 Neutral
7 CLE 5.50 3.67 3.59 0.670 131 +18 Value
8 BOS 5.33 4.75 4.25 0.662 82 +8 Value
9 CHC 5.33 3.67 4.25 0.674 123 +8 Value
10 SEA 5.17 3.75 4.06 0.619 117 +12 Neutral
11 ARI 5.14 4.15 4.18 0.650 91 +8 Neutral
12 WSH 5.00 5.25 5.88 0.776 97 -10 Fade
13 TEX 4.83 3.83 4.19 0.678 109 +5 Value
14 LAD 4.50 6.42 5.94 0.864 134 -13 Fade
15 MIA 4.43 5.08 4.71 0.738 101 -5 Fade
16 CIN 4.33 3.58 3.38 0.617 77 +11 Value
17 COL 4.33 3.67 4.06 0.683 93 +4 Watch
18 SF 4.20 3.92 3.19 0.632 109 +10 Value
19 TOR 4.20 2.91 3.53 0.673 105 +7 Value
20 DET 4.17 4.25 4.38 0.683 99 -7 Neutral
21 NYY 4.14 5.17 4.75 0.674 90 -12 Fade
22 PHI 4.00 4.33 4.12 0.673 88 -2 Neutral
23 STL 3.83 3.75 4.31 0.681 108 -8 Neutral
24 TB 3.80 4.00 4.67 0.712 77 -13 Fade
25 ATH 3.43 4.42 4.00 0.657 85 -2 Neutral
26 HOU 3.00 5.42 5.59 0.827 82 -23 Neutral
27 MIL 2.40 4.27 5.20 0.741 52 -21 Neutral
28 CWS 2.17 2.08 2.75 0.594 38 +2 Neutral
29 KC 2.00 3.08 2.88 0.674 44 0 Neutral
30 NYM 1.86 3.08 3.65 0.675 46 -6 Fade
Table Insights
Extracted from rolling tables above.
Strongest
NYM Fade
FADE: The Mets bullpen has been shaky this week, giving up a lot of runs after looking solid over the past month. The gap between how many runs they've allowed and how well they've actually thrown suggests this rough stretch could stick around. Avoid leaning on the Mets pen to close out games right now.
BOS Value
VALUE: The Red Sox bullpen has been really sharp this week, posting one of the best ERAs in the league at 2.61. They've also been keeping runners off the bases with a strong WHIP of 0.87. Back Boston's bullpen to help lock down close games right now.
DET Value
VALUE: Detroit's bullpen has been nearly untouchable this week, allowing barely any runs and ranking second best in baseball. They've been consistent over the past month too, not just a one-week flash. Back the Tigers when it comes down to their relievers, even against tough competition.
MIN Fade
FADE: The Twins bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball lately, giving up runs at a high rate and struggling to keep runners off base. This isn't just a bad week either — they've ranked near the bottom over the past month too. Avoid Minnesota in games where the bullpen will be heavily relied upon.
MIL Value
VALUE: Milwaukee starters have been one of the best in baseball this week, even though their numbers over the past month looked ordinary. They're doing this against a tough schedule, which makes it even more impressive. Back the Brewers when their starters are on the mound this week.
NYM Fade
FADE: The Mets starting pitchers have been struggling this week, giving up nearly 6 runs per 9 innings with a high WHIP of 1.53. While their starters looked better earlier in the season, things have clearly turned in the wrong direction. Fade the Mets rotation until they show signs of turning it around.
SEA Fade
FADE: Seattle's rotation has looked good over a longer stretch, but things have been slipping recently and their momentum is heading the wrong way. The fact that their easier schedule has helped pad those longer-term numbers is worth keeping in mind. Hold off on backing the Mariners starters until they show they can keep it going.
TEX Fade
FADE: Texas starters have put up decent run-prevention numbers this week, but the way they've actually been throwing the ball suggests they've been getting a bit lucky. The team is also losing momentum heading into this stretch. Fade the Rangers rotation until the results start matching how they're actually pitching.
BOS Value
VALUE: Boston's offense has been scoring over 5 runs a game recently and their momentum is trending in the right direction. They've been one of the more consistent lineups over the past couple of weeks. Back the Red Sox offense to keep putting up runs this week.
CHC Value
VALUE: The Cubs lineup has been hitting really well lately, putting up strong numbers against tough pitching with a wRC+ of 123 — which means they're producing well above average. They're also scoring over 5 runs a game and gaining momentum. Back Chicago's offense, especially against quality arms.
Injury & Lineup Log
Player Team Status Injury Impact
Jonathan Bowlan PHI 10-day IL 15-day IL — Right groin strain Philadelphia Phillies placed RHP Jonathan Bowlan on the 15-day injured list. Right groin strain.
Ryan Mountcastle BAL 60-day IL 60-day IL — Left foot fracture Baltimore Orioles placed 1B Ryan Mountcastle on the 60-day injured list. Left foot fracture.
Ben Casparius LAD 10-day IL 15-day IL — Right shoulder inflammation Los Angeles Dodgers placed RHP Ben Casparius on the 15-day injured list. Right shoulder inflammation.
Parker Meadows DET 60-day IL 60-day IL — Left radius fracture Detroit Tigers transferred CF Parker Meadows from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Left radius fracture.
Cole Henry WSH 10-day IL 15-day IL — Right rotator cuff strain Washington Nationals placed RHP Cole Henry on the 15-day injured list. Right rotator cuff strain.
Yaramil Hiraldo BAL 60-day IL 60-day IL — Right shoulder inflammation Baltimore Orioles transferred RHP Yaramil Hiraldo from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Right shoulder inflammation.
Tatsuya Imai HOU 10-day IL 15-day IL — Right arm fatigue Houston Astros placed RHP Tatsuya Imai on the 15-day injured list retroactive to April 12, 2026. Right arm fatigue.
Jeremy Peña HOU 10-day IL 10-day IL — Grade one hamstring strain Houston Astros placed SS Jeremy Peña on the 10-day injured list retroactive to April 12, 2026. Grade one hamstring strain.
Ken Waldichuk WSH 10-day IL 15-day IL — Left forearm tightness Washington Nationals placed LHP Ken Waldichuk on the 15-day injured list. Left forearm tightness.
Shane Bieber TOR 60-day IL 60-day IL — Right elbow inflammation Toronto Blue Jays transferred RHP Shane Bieber from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Right elbow inflammation.
Activated from IL
ATL: Michael Harris II — activated from IL
CLE: George Valera — activated from IL
CLE: Hunter Gaddis — activated from IL

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MLB Stats Tracker
Look up any batter or pitcher on today's slate with rolling performance windows and color-coded data points.
⚾ Batters — AVG / OBP / SLG / HR / K / RBI over last 7, 10, or 21 games
⚾ Pitchers — ERA / WHIP / K / BB over last 2, 3, or 4 starts
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Methodology
Rolling windows — 7, 14, and 28-day stats from completed games only. Postponed games excluded.
Momentum — rank_28d - rank_7d. Positive = outperforming recent baseline. Negative = declining.
Schedule strength — Value on Hard schedule is stronger.
ERA-FIP gap — ERA minus FIP. Gap over 1.0 = ERA likely to regress down (unlucky). Under -1.0 = may regress up.
Signals — Value = momentum +5 or more on Avg/Hard. Fade = -5 or worse on Easy/Avg.
Straight rolling ERA with no leverage weighting.
Compass publishes statistical analysis and insights for informational purposes only. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes betting advice.
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