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MLB Recaps
Thursday, April 16 10 games · full slate
Game Recaps
Seattle Mariners (SEA) @ San Diego Padres (SD)
Petco Park
SEA
2
SD
5
SEA Starter
Luis Castillo
5.1 IP · 7 H · 1 ER · 3 K · 3 BB · 98 PC
SEA Batters
Cal Raleigh 2-4 (1 RBI)
Brendan Donovan 2-3 (1 R, 1 BB)
Insight
Luis Castillo settled in after a rough stretch, giving up just 1 run in 5-plus innings, but the offense could only manage 2 runs and the Mariners dropped this one.
SD Starter
Walker Buehler
5 IP · 5 H · 2 ER · 7 K · 1 BB · 88 PC
SD Batters
Manny Machado 2-4 (1 RBI)
Miguel Andujar 2-4 (1 R)
Insight
Walker Buehler gave the Padres a solid outing with 7 strikeouts and the offense did enough to back him up in a 5-2 win.
Washington Nationals (WSH) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT)
PNC Park
WSH
8
PIT
7
WSH Starter
Foster Griffin
5.1 IP · 8 H · 4 ER · 7 K · 1 BB · 89 PC
WSH Batters
James Wood 2-6 (1 RBI)
Daylen Lile 2-5 (1 R)
Drew Millas 2-2 (1 R)
Insight
Foster Griffin had been dealing lately coming in with three straight strong starts, but gave up 4 runs tonight and the Nats needed a big offensive night to escape with the win.
PIT Starter
Braxton Ashcraft
5.2 IP · 5 H · 2 ER · 7 K · 2 BB · 90 PC
PIT Batters
Jake Mangum 3-5 (2 R, 1 BB)
Nick Gonzales 2-4 (1 RBI)
Oneil Cruz 2-5 (1 RBI)
Insight
Braxton Ashcraft had quietly been pitching really well, but the Pirates offense could not get over the hump in a one-run loss despite Jake Mangum going 3-for-5.
Los Angeles Angels (LAA) @ New York Yankees (NYY)
Yankee Stadium
LAA
11
NYY
4
LAA Starter
Brent Suter
2 IP · 3 H · 1 ER · 2 K · 2 BB · 49 PC
LAA Batters
Jo Adell 2-4 (1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB)
Oswald Peraza 2-4 (1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB)
Insight
Jo Adell and Oswald Peraza both went deep and the Angels offense ran wild for 11 runs, a result that fits their recent offensive surge.
NYY Starter
Max Fried
5.1 IP · 3 H · 5 ER · 3 K · 3 BB · 93 PC
NYY Batters
José Caballero 3-4
Insight
Max Fried gave up 5 runs in 5-plus innings, a real step back after three straight strong outings coming in, and the Yankees offense never got going in a blowout loss.
Toronto Blue Jays (TOR) @ Milwaukee Brewers (MIL)
American Family Field
TOR
1
MIL
2
TOR Starter
Patrick Corbin
5.2 IP · 4 H · 1 ER · 6 K · 1 BB · 79 PC
TOR Batters
Andrés Giménez 2-3 (1 R)
Insight
Patrick Corbin kept it close with a solid 5-plus innings, but Toronto managed just 1 run and could not pull it out in a tight loss.
MIL Starter
Brandon Sproat
6.2 IP · 4 H · 1 ER · 6 K · 1 BB · 75 PC
MIL Batters
William Contreras 2-4
Gary Sánchez 2-3 (1 BB)
Insight
Brandon Sproat bounced back big time after getting lit up for 7 runs in his last start, going 6-plus innings and allowing just 1 run to help Milwaukee take a 2-1 win.
Colorado Rockies (COL) @ Houston Astros (HOU)
Daikin Park
COL
3
HOU
2
COL Starter
Juan Mejia
0.2 IP · 3 H · 2 ER · 2 K · 0 BB · 30 PC
COL Batters
Tyler Freeman 3-5 (1 RBI)
Hunter Goodman 2-3 (1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB)
Brenton Doyle 2-3 (1 R, 1 BB)
Insight
Tyler Freeman went 3-for-5 and Hunter Goodman added a homer as Colorado scratched out enough runs to steal a road win despite shaky starting pitching.
HOU Starter
Ryan Weiss
3.2 IP · 3 H · 2 ER · 3 K · 4 BB · 76 PC
HOU Batters
Jose Altuve 2-4 (1 R, 1 BB)
Insight
Houston's offense has been trending down a lot lately and that showed tonight, managing just 2 runs and dropping a home game to Colorado.
Kansas City Royals (KC) @ Detroit Tigers (DET)
Comerica Park
KC
9
DET
10
KC Starter
Kris Bubic
4.2 IP · 6 H · 5 ER · 3 K · 3 BB · 82 PC
KC Batters
Salvador Perez 2-4 (1 HR, 4 RBI)
Bobby Witt Jr. 3-5 (1 RBI)
Carter Jensen 2-5 (1 RBI)
Insight
Kris Bubic got rocked for 5 runs after a string of solid starts, and even though Salvador Perez hit a homer and drove in 4, Kansas City fell short by one.
DET Starter
Keider Montero
6 IP · 7 H · 4 ER · 5 K · 0 BB · 83 PC
DET Batters
Dillon Dingler 2-5 (1 HR, 2 RBI)
Riley Greene 3-4 (2 RBI, 1 BB)
Gleyber Torres 2-4 (1 RBI, 1 BB)
Insight
Riley Greene went 3-for-4 with 2 RBI and Detroit hung on in a wild back-and-forth game to take the 10-9 win.
Baltimore Orioles (BAL) @ Cleveland Guardians (CLE)
Progressive Field
BAL
2
CLE
4
BAL Starter
Shane Baz
6 IP · 6 H · 4 ER · 6 K · 3 BB · 99 PC
BAL Batters
Nothing Noteworthy
Insight
Shane Baz gave up 4 runs and the Baltimore offense could not do enough to bail him out in a 4-2 loss.
CLE Starter
Parker Messick
8 IP · 2 H · 2 ER · 9 K · 2 BB · 112 PC
CLE Batters
José Ramírez 2-3 (1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB)
Steven Kwan 2-4 (1 RBI)
George Valera 2-4 (1 RBI)
Insight
Parker Messick was dominant, going 8 innings with just 2 hits and 9 strikeouts, making it three straight quality starts where he has been nearly unhittable.
San Francisco Giants (SF) @ Cincinnati Reds (CIN)
Great American Ball Park
SF
3
CIN
0
SF Starter
Landen Roupp
6 IP · 1 H · 0 ER · 6 K · 2 BB · 87 PC
SF Batters
Jung Hoo Lee 3-4 (1 RBI)
Insight
Landen Roupp was filthy, allowing just 1 hit over 6 shutout innings, and Jung Hoo Lee went 3-for-4 to lead the offense in a clean Giants win.
CIN Starter
Chase Burns
6 IP · 2 H · 0 ER · 4 K · 1 BB · 87 PC
CIN Batters
Nothing Noteworthy
Insight
Chase Burns was solid too but the Reds offense went quiet and could not score a single run, a rough result given their offense had been trending up recently.
Tampa Bay Rays (TB) @ Chicago White Sox (CWS)
Rate Field
TB
5
CWS
3
TB Starter
Steven Matz
5.1 IP · 6 H · 2 ER · 4 K · 1 BB · 74 PC
TB Batters
Junior Caminero 2-5 (1 HR, 1 RBI)
Richie Palacios 2-2 (1 RBI)
Yandy Díaz 2-5 (1 R)
Insight
Junior Caminero went deep and Tampa Bay got solid work from Steven Matz to take a 5-3 road win.
CWS Starter
Jordan Leasure
1.1 IP · 0 H · 0 ER · 0 K · 1 BB · 21 PC
CWS Batters
Everson Pereira 2-3 (1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB)
Chase Meidroth 2-4 (1 R)
Insight
Chicago's starter lasted just 1-plus innings and the White Sox could not overcome the early hole, falling 5-3 at home.
Texas Rangers (TEX) @ Athletics (ATH)
Sutter Health Park
TEX
9
ATH
6
TEX Starter
Jack Leiter
5.2 IP · 7 H · 3 ER · 3 K · 3 BB · 105 PC
TEX Batters
Josh Jung 3-5 (1 HR, 2 RBI)
Ezequiel Duran 2-4 (2 RBI, 1 BB)
Insight
Josh Jung went 3-for-5 with a homer and Texas got contributions up and down the lineup to win 9-6, with the offense carrying the load despite the pitching staff trending down lately.
ATH Starter
Jacob Lopez
5 IP · 3 H · 2 ER · 5 K · 4 BB · 85 PC
ATH Batters
Nick Kurtz 2-4 (3 RBI, 1 BB)
Jacob Wilson 2-5 (2 RBI)
Carlos Cortes 2-4 (1 RBI)
Insight
Nick Kurtz drove in 3 and the Athletics had plenty of offensive firepower, but Jacob Lopez has now allowed 3 or more runs in each of his last three starts and could not keep Texas in check.
Rolling Performance Tables
Bullpen Rankings
📊 Sorted by 7d ERA
📅 7d / 14d / 28d ERA — Rolling ERA.
🔬 FIP — If ERA > FIP then the bullpen should get better.
K% — Strikeout rate. Higher is better.
📈 Mom. — Momentum. (28d - 7d). Positive = Trending. Negative = Declining.
🎯 SignalValue = Target. Fade = Avoid. Watch = Mixed signals.
# Team 7d ERA 14d 28d FIP K% Mom. Signal
1 TOR 1.81 3.95 4.82 2.37 28.9% +20 Value
2 CIN 2.34 1.87 2.56 3.97 21.5% -1 Neutral
3 SD 2.52 2.55 2.89 2.50 27.9% -1 Neutral
4 SF 2.93 4.57 3.89 3.37 29.9% +11 Value
5 PIT 3.00 3.35 3.54 3.49 20.6% +5 Value
6 DET 3.27 2.65 3.59 4.74 17.5% +6 Neutral
7 LAD 3.31 3.79 3.24 2.30 35.8% 0 Neutral
8 COL 3.35 2.72 3.11 4.99 19.2% -3 Watch
9 CHC 3.37 3.69 3.53 3.59 22.7% 0 Neutral
10 BAL 3.61 2.97 3.66 3.54 25.6% +3 Watch
11 ARI 3.91 2.96 4.96 3.63 28.4% +12 Value
12 HOU 3.95 6.58 5.86 4.27 21.8% +15 Value
13 TB 4.33 4.53 5.81 5.25 17.8% +13 Neutral
14 MIA 4.43 4.40 3.30 3.48 25.7% -6 Neutral
15 BOS 4.44 3.69 3.95 6.06 23.4% +1 Neutral
16 SEA 4.64 3.03 2.89 3.51 14.6% -13 Neutral
17 ATH 4.90 6.01 4.83 3.72 25.0% +5 Neutral
18 PHI 5.19 3.27 4.39 2.87 27.2% 0 Neutral
19 STL 5.25 5.35 5.30 3.02 20.4% +6 Value
20 MIN 5.68 4.76 4.99 4.21 14.4% +4 Watch
21 KC 5.79 5.13 6.41 4.46 22.2% +9 Neutral
22 WSH 5.81 6.85 6.14 4.62 19.3% +7 Value
23 TEX 5.92 3.62 3.00 5.69 19.4% -19 Fade
24 NYM 6.18 4.78 3.57 4.28 25.5% -13 Fade
25 CWS 6.36 4.62 6.01 4.10 20.0% +3 Watch
26 NYY 6.40 5.12 4.12 5.95 12.7% -9 Neutral
27 MIL 6.81 5.48 3.82 3.10 13.1% -13 Neutral
28 ATL 7.25 4.26 3.20 4.16 19.7% -22 Fade
29 LAA 7.50 5.96 4.67 6.71 17.9% -10 Fade
30 CLE 7.90 5.20 4.77 4.12 15.6% -10 Neutral

SP Rotation Rankings
📊 Sorted by FIP — High ERA + low FIP = ERA likely to drop.
📅 7d / 14d / 28d ERA — Rolling ERA.
🔬 FIP — Strips out defense and luck. Future predictor for ERA.
K-BB% — If > 15% = Good. < 8% = Bad.
🚶 WHIP — Measures baserunner control and game flow impact.
📈 Mom. — Momentum. 28d - 7d rank. Positive = rotation outperforming 28d avg.
🎯 SignalValue = Trending up. Fade = Trending down. Watch = Mixed signals.
# Team 7d ERA 14d 28d FIP K-BB% WHIP Mom. Signal
1 DET 1.93 4.16 3.71 2.11 16.1% 0.83 +1 Neutral
2 KC 2.63 3.58 2.92 2.91 14.8% 0.93 +7 Value
3 SEA 4.14 3.36 3.35 3.17 12.9% 1.31 -2 Neutral
4 SD 3.41 3.46 3.75 3.24 18.8% 1.03 +3 Watch
5 MIL 2.59 3.25 3.66 3.29 15.7% 0.86 +16 Value
6 PHI 6.75 5.31 5.11 3.39 15.8% 1.75 -1 Neutral
7 MIN 4.76 3.89 3.77 3.51 16.4% 1.29 -4 Watch
8 TB 2.25 3.30 3.34 3.74 14.0% 1.07 +3 Watch
9 BAL 4.49 4.51 4.28 3.89 16.2% 1.52 +1 Neutral
10 PIT 3.34 2.88 3.04 3.94 13.8% 1.27 -4 Watch
11 LAD 2.63 3.15 3.15 3.95 19.3% 0.85 +2 Neutral
12 ATL 2.96 3.10 2.84 3.99 9.9% 1.32 +5 Value
13 CHC 6.04 4.00 3.90 4.12 23.8% 1.31 +1 Neutral
14 ATH 3.38 3.46 4.19 4.49 9.7% 1.15 +14 Neutral
15 CLE 4.31 3.08 3.35 4.54 10.5% 1.31 0 Neutral
16 STL 4.94 5.40 4.75 4.62 5.2% 1.36 +11 Value
17 NYM 4.71 4.04 4.00 4.67 11.9% 1.40 -9 Fade
18 TEX 3.91 3.27 3.97 4.70 9.1% 1.50 -6 Fade
19 LAA 3.86 3.61 4.28 4.90 8.0% 1.31 -1 Neutral
20 MIA 6.16 5.05 4.66 4.92 10.8% 1.53 +4 Watch
21 CWS 3.61 2.28 4.20 5.07 5.8% 1.16 -1 Neutral
22 ARI 4.74 3.29 3.47 5.08 10.4% 1.49 +3 Watch
23 NYY 5.75 4.77 3.40 5.13 18.4% 1.22 -19 Neutral
24 CIN 5.52 4.37 4.39 5.16 0.7% 1.45 -1 Neutral
25 BOS 5.96 4.91 5.02 5.75 5.3% 1.60 -3 Watch
26 WSH 5.48 6.51 5.65 5.79 7.2% 1.47 +3 Watch
27 TOR 7.31 6.61 4.59 6.07 8.6% 1.52 -11 Neutral
28 SF 5.39 4.58 4.34 6.13 9.4% 1.39 -9 Fade
29 HOU 8.64 7.16 6.16 6.42 5.6% 2.00 -3 Watch
30 COL 7.89 6.39 5.22 7.54 6.1% 1.81 0 Neutral

Team Batting Rankings
📊 Sorted by 7d R/G
📅 7d / 14d / 28d R/G — Runs per game over each rolling window.
💥 OPS — If > .800 = Good. If < .670 = Bad
🎯 wRC+ — Measures offense against the league average. 100 = league average. 110 = 10% above average.
📈 Mom. — Momentum. 28d rank - 7d rank. Positive = Trending up.
🎯 SignalValue = Hot. Fade = Cold. Watch = Neutral.
# Team 7d R/G 14d 28d OPS wRC+ Mom. Signal
1 LAA 7.71 5.69 5.25 0.701 161 +5 Value
2 MIN 7.17 5.92 5.42 0.710 136 +2 Neutral
3 ATL 6.67 5.42 5.58 0.781 145 0 Neutral
4 CHC 6.33 4.92 4.94 0.688 136 +5 Value
5 SD 6.17 5.46 4.74 0.683 152 +6 Value
6 TB 6.00 5.08 5.06 0.720 130 +1 Neutral
7 PIT 5.86 5.08 5.00 0.717 122 +1 Neutral
8 BOS 5.50 5.00 4.28 0.663 91 +10 Value
9 SEA 5.43 3.92 3.90 0.640 123 +14 Value
10 TEX 5.43 3.85 4.32 0.684 110 +7 Value
11 ARI 5.17 4.67 4.37 0.662 104 +5 Value
12 WSH 5.14 5.31 5.63 0.765 91 -10 Neutral
13 DET 5.00 4.62 4.42 0.689 124 +2 Neutral
14 LAD 5.00 6.83 5.83 0.862 153 -13 Fade
15 PHI 5.00 4.08 4.00 0.681 102 +6 Value
16 BAL 4.86 4.08 4.16 0.719 109 +3 Watch
17 CLE 4.71 3.92 3.65 0.689 113 +7 Value
18 NYY 4.57 4.77 4.53 0.674 104 -5 Neutral
19 TOR 4.50 3.36 3.56 0.691 106 +6 Value
20 ATH 4.43 4.69 4.11 0.662 114 0 Neutral
21 CIN 4.17 3.62 3.37 0.627 95 +6 Value
22 HOU 4.00 4.77 5.35 0.811 98 -17 Fade
23 MIA 3.50 4.23 4.63 0.730 83 -11 Neutral
24 MIL 3.50 3.67 4.94 0.725 90 -14 Neutral
25 STL 3.50 4.25 4.44 0.684 104 -11 Neutral
26 KC 3.33 2.62 3.00 0.651 67 +3 Watch
27 COL 3.17 3.92 3.95 0.685 78 -5 Neutral
28 CWS 2.83 2.83 2.89 0.585 66 +2 Neutral
29 SF 2.83 3.08 3.05 0.642 82 -1 Neutral
30 NYM 1.50 3.33 3.42 0.647 28 -4 Watch

Table Insights
Extracted from rolling tables above.
Strongest
ATL Fade
FADE: The Atlanta bullpen has been a mess this past week, giving up runs at an alarming rate. They rank 28th out of 30 teams over the last seven days, and things have gotten noticeably worse recently. Avoid Atlanta in games where the bullpen is likely to see heavy action.
NYM Fade
FADE: The Mets bullpen has been struggling lately, ranking 24th over the last seven days with a 6.18 ERA. They were solid a month ago, but things have slipped in a big way recently. Stay away from New York in close games where the relievers will need to hold a lead.
STL Value
VALUE: The Cardinals bullpen numbers look rough on the surface, but they have been pitching better than the results show lately. Their WHIP is solid at 1.29, and they have been facing a tougher schedule than most. Keep an eye on St. Louis relievers as the schedule gets easier.
ARI Value
VALUE: Arizona's bullpen has been one of the sharpest in baseball recently, posting a 0.918 WHIP over the last week. They are striking batters out at a high rate and closing games out well with an 80% save rate. Back the Diamondbacks in games where the bullpen is involved.
ATL Value
VALUE: Atlanta's starting pitchers have been quietly solid, ranking 12th over the last seven days with a 2.96 ERA. They have been doing this consistently for a month, which makes it a real trend and not just a hot week. Back Atlanta starters while they are in this kind of form.
MIL Value
VALUE: Milwaukee's starters have been among the best in baseball this week, ranking 5th overall with a 2.59 ERA. They are doing it against a tough schedule, which makes it even more impressive. Back Brewers starters right now while they are rolling.
NYM Fade
FADE: Mets starters have slipped this week after looking decent over the last month, now sitting 17th in ERA. Their momentum is trending in the wrong direction and the results are getting worse. Hold off on backing New York starters until they show signs of turning it around.
SF Fade
FADE: San Francisco's rotation is struggling badly right now, ranking 28th over the last seven days with a 5.39 ERA. Things have not been good over the last month either, so this is not just a short slump. Avoid the Giants when their starters take the mound this week.
BOS Value
VALUE: Boston's offense has been scoring runs at a solid pace, putting up 5.5 runs per game recently. Their momentum is trending up and they have been doing it against tough competition. Back the Red Sox lineup to keep producing this week.
HOU Fade
FADE: Houston's offense looks decent on paper with a decent OPS, but they are only scoring 4.0 runs per game right now. Their momentum has been dropping fast and the results at the plate are not matching the hype. Fade the Astros offense until they start turning hits into actual runs.

Injury & Lineup Log
Player Team Status Injury Impact
Ken Waldichuk WSH 60-day IL 60-day IL — Left forearm tightness Washington Nationals transferred LHP Ken Waldichuk from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Left forearm tightness.
Activated from IL
SD: Sung-Mun Song — activated from IL

Free Tool · mlb.up.railway.app
MLB Stats Tracker
Look up any batter or pitcher on today's slate with rolling performance windows and color-coded data points.
Batters — AVG / OBP / SLG / HR / K / RBI over last 7, 10, or 21 games
Pitchers — ERA / WHIP / K / BB over last 2, 3, or 4 starts
🔄 Cache refreshes at 6AM PT daily
Methodology
Rolling windows — 7, 14, and 28-day stats from completed games only. Postponed games excluded.
Momentum — rank_28d - rank_7d. Positive = outperforming recent baseline. Negative = declining.
Schedule strength — Value on Hard schedule is stronger.
ERA-FIP gap — ERA minus FIP. Gap over 1.0 = ERA likely to regress down (unlucky). Under -1.0 = may regress up.
Signals — Value = momentum +5 or more on Avg/Hard. Fade = -5 or worse on Easy/Avg.
Straight rolling ERA with no leverage weighting.
Compass publishes statistical analysis and insights for informational purposes only. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes betting advice.