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Wednesday, April 22 15 games · full slate
Game Recaps
Atlanta Braves (ATL) @ Washington Nationals (WSH)
Nationals Park
ATL
8
WSH
6
ATL Starter
Didier Fuentes
3 IP · 7 H · 4 ER · 7 K · 1 BB · 74 PC
ATL Batters
Michael Harris II 2-4 (2 HR, 3 RBI)
Drake Baldwin 2-3 (1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB)
Insight
Michael Harris II went 2-for-4 with two home runs and three RBI to carry Atlanta to the win. Drake Baldwin also went deep, giving the Braves three solo shots on the night.
WSH Starter
Zack Littell
6 IP · 7 H · 6 ER · 1 K · 2 BB · 96 PC
WSH Batters
Daylen Lile 2-5 (1 HR, 3 RBI)
James Wood 2-3 (1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BB)
Jacob Young 2-5 (1 R)
Insight
Zack Littell got roughed up for 6 runs in 6 innings, and this one fits a rough stretch where he gave up 8 runs in just 4 innings two starts ago. The bullpen that had been trending up could not hold the lead down the stretch.
Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT) @ Texas Rangers (TEX)
Globe Life Field
PIT
8
TEX
4
PIT Starter
Braxton Ashcraft
7 IP · 4 H · 2 ER · 5 K · 2 BB · 94 PC
PIT Batters
Bryan Reynolds 2-5 (1 RBI)
Spencer Horwitz 2-4 (1 R)
Insight
Braxton Ashcraft went 7 innings and gave up just 2 runs, and this is now four straight starts where he has allowed 2 runs or fewer. Pittsburgh's offense added enough cushion to make it an easy hold for the bullpen.
TEX Starter
Jack Leiter
5 IP · 5 H · 3 ER · 5 K · 2 BB · 84 PC
TEX Batters
Josh Jung 2-4 (1 HR, 2 RBI)
Insight
Texas's bullpen has been trending down lately and it showed tonight, as Pittsburgh pulled away for an 8-4 win. Josh Jung hit a home run but the Rangers could not get enough going offensively to keep up.
Cincinnati Reds (CIN) @ Tampa Bay Rays (TB)
Tropicana Field
CIN
1
TB
6
CIN Starter
Brandon Williamson
4.1 IP · 7 H · 5 ER · 3 K · 3 BB · 87 PC
CIN Batters
Nothing Noteworthy
Insight
Brandon Williamson gave up 5 runs in just over 4 innings, a tough outing especially coming off a shutout performance his last time out. Cincinnati's offense never got going and managed just 1 run on the night.
TB Starter
Nick Martinez
8 IP · 5 H · 1 ER · 6 K · 1 BB · 95 PC
TB Batters
Yandy Díaz 3-4 (1 RBI)
Ryan Vilade 2-2 (1 RBI, 1 BB)
Insight
Nick Martinez was brilliant, going 8 innings and allowing just 1 run while striking out 6. He has now given up 1 run or fewer in three straight starts, and Tampa Bay's pitching carried them to a comfortable win.
Athletics (ATH) @ Seattle Mariners (SEA)
T-Mobile Park
ATH
4
SEA
5
ATH Starter
Aaron Civale
5.1 IP · 6 H · 3 ER · 5 K · 1 BB · 85 PC
ATH Batters
Nick Kurtz 2-4 (1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB)
Jacob Wilson 2-4 (1 RBI)
Carlos Cortes 2-5 (1 R)
Insight
Nick Kurtz hit a home run and Oakland had multiple guys with multi-hit games, but the Athletics could not hold on late and dropped a 5-4 decision. Their offense has been trending up recently, so this one stings a bit.
SEA Starter
Logan Gilbert
4 IP · 6 H · 3 ER · 3 K · 2 BB · 89 PC
SEA Batters
Cal Raleigh 3-5 (1 HR, 1 RBI)
Josh Naylor 3-5 (1 RBI)
Julio Rodríguez 2-5 (1 RBI)
Insight
Cal Raleigh went 3-for-5 with a home run and Josh Naylor also had three hits to pace Seattle's offense. The Mariners found a way to win despite their starting pitching and bullpen both trending in the wrong direction lately.
Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD) @ San Francisco Giants (SF)
Oracle Park
LAD
0
SF
3
LAD Starter
Shohei Ohtani
6 IP · 5 H · 0 ER · 7 K · 0 BB · 91 PC
LAD Batters
Freddie Freeman 2-4
Insight
Shohei Ohtani threw 6 shutout innings with 7 strikeouts and no walks, making it three straight outings without allowing a run. The Dodgers offense has been trending down a lot lately and could not score a single run despite his gem.
SF Starter
Tyler Mahle
7 IP · 3 H · 0 ER · 5 K · 2 BB · 91 PC
SF Batters
Rafael Devers 2-4
Heliot Ramos 2-3 (1 R)
Insight
Tyler Mahle shut out LA over 7 innings and San Francisco's pitching has been on a real roll lately with both the rotation and bullpen trending up. This win fits perfectly with everything going right for the Giants right now.
Minnesota Twins (MIN) @ New York Mets (NYM)
Citi Field
MIN
2
NYM
3
MIN Starter
Connor Prielipp
4 IP · 4 H · 2 ER · 6 K · 0 BB · 82 PC
MIN Batters
Nothing Noteworthy
Insight
Minnesota's offense has been trending down a lot lately and it showed again tonight, managing just 2 runs in a one-run loss. The Twins could not get enough going against Clay Holmes.
NYM Starter
Clay Holmes
7 IP · 5 H · 2 ER · 3 K · 1 BB · 88 PC
NYM Batters
Francisco Lindor 2-2 (1 RBI)
Insight
Clay Holmes went 7 innings and gave up just 2 runs, and he has now allowed 2 runs or fewer in three straight starts. Francisco Lindor had a key hit and the Mets did just enough to win 3-2.
St. Louis Cardinals (STL) @ Miami Marlins (MIA)
loanDepot park
STL
1
MIA
4
STL Starter
Kyle Leahy
5 IP · 8 H · 4 ER · 2 K · 3 BB · 89 PC
STL Batters
Nothing Noteworthy
Insight
Kyle Leahy gave up 4 runs on 8 hits in 5 innings and St. Louis could not generate any offense, scoring just 1 run. The Cardinals were held to just 1 hit all night according to the starting pitching matchup.
MIA Starter
Janson Junk
5 IP · 1 H · 0 ER · 2 K · 1 BB · 56 PC
MIA Batters
Javier Sanoja 3-4
Agustín Ramírez 2-3 (1 RBI, 1 BB)
Heriberto Hernández 2-4 (1 R)
Insight
Janson Junk was outstanding, holding St. Louis to just 1 hit over 5 scoreless innings on only 56 pitches. Javier Sanoja went 3-for-4 to lead the Miami offense in a comfortable 4-1 win.
Toronto Blue Jays (TOR) @ Los Angeles Angels (LAA)
Angel Stadium
TOR
3
LAA
7
TOR Starter
Eric Lauer
5 IP · 7 H · 3 ER · 3 K · 2 BB · 79 PC
TOR Batters
Ernie Clement 3-5 (1 RBI)
Nathan Lukes 2-5 (1 RBI)
Andrés Giménez 2-4 (1 R)
Insight
Toronto managed multiple multi-hit performances but could not get to Jose Soriano, who held them scoreless over 5 innings. The Blue Jays fell 7-3 and could not overcome the Angels' hot start.
LAA Starter
José Soriano
5 IP · 7 H · 0 ER · 4 K · 0 BB · 84 PC
LAA Batters
Nolan Schanuel 2-4 (1 HR, 4 RBI)
Logan O'Hoppe 2-4 (1 R)
Bryce Teodosio 2-4
Insight
Jose Soriano has now shut out opponents in two straight starts before giving up just 1 run in his last outing, and tonight he kept Toronto off the board over 5 innings. Nolan Schanuel crushed a home run with 4 RBI to be the difference-maker in a 7-3 Angels win.
Baltimore Orioles (BAL) @ Kansas City Royals (KC)
Kauffman Stadium
BAL
8
KC
6
BAL Starter
Chris Bassitt
5.1 IP · 8 H · 5 ER · 3 K · 2 BB · 88 PC
BAL Batters
Leody Taveras 2-4 (1 RBI)
Dylan Beavers 2-5
Colton Cowser 2-4 (1 R)
Insight
Chris Bassitt gave up 5 runs in just over 5 innings, which matches his recent stretch of inconsistency. Baltimore's bullpen held things together and the Orioles offense did enough to come away with an 8-6 win.
KC Starter
Michael Wacha
5.1 IP · 7 H · 6 ER · 5 K · 2 BB · 89 PC
KC Batters
Carter Jensen 2-3 (1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB)
Vinnie Pasquantino 2-3 (1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB)
Michael Massey 2-4 (1 R)
Insight
Michael Wacha was coming off two really strong starts but got tagged for 6 runs in just over 5 innings tonight. Kansas City's offense has been trending up a lot but it was not enough to overcome the rough outing from their starter.
Milwaukee Brewers (MIL) @ Detroit Tigers (DET)
Comerica Park
MIL
2
DET
5
MIL Starter
DL Hall
2 IP · 0 H · 0 ER · 2 K · 2 BB · 32 PC
MIL Batters
Brandon Lockridge 2-4
Insight
Milwaukee's bullpen has been trending down a lot lately and the offense could not make up for it, managing just 2 runs in the loss. DL Hall threw just 2 innings before handing it off and the Brewers could never get going.
DET Starter
Casey Mize
6 IP · 3 H · 1 ER · 7 K · 3 BB · 88 PC
DET Batters
Colt Keith 2-3 (1 RBI)
Riley Greene 2-4 (1 R)
Insight
Casey Mize bounced back nicely with 6 innings of 1-run ball after giving up 5 runs in his last start. Detroit won 5-2 and Colt Keith and Riley Greene each had multi-hit games to support him.
San Diego Padres (SD) @ Colorado Rockies (COL)
Coors Field
SD
3
COL
8
SD Starter
Walker Buehler
2.2 IP · 8 H · 4 ER · 2 K · 3 BB · 82 PC
SD Batters
Luis Campusano 3-4 (1 HR, 1 RBI)
Xander Bogaerts 2-4
Insight
Walker Buehler lasted just 2.2 innings and gave up 4 runs on 8 hits to set San Diego back early. The Padres offense has been trending down a lot lately and could never really recover in an 8-3 loss.
COL Starter
Tomoyuki Sugano
5.2 IP · 5 H · 1 ER · 4 K · 1 BB · 101 PC
COL Batters
Hunter Goodman 3-4 (1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB)
TJ Rumfield 2-5 (2 RBI)
Mickey Moniak 2-4 (1 RBI)
Insight
Colorado won 8-3 and Hunter Goodman went 3-for-4 with a homer while TJ Rumfield knocked in 2 runs to pace the offense. Colorado's starting pitching has been trending up a lot lately and Tomoyuki Sugano kept San Diego in check for most of the game.
Houston Astros (HOU) @ Cleveland Guardians (CLE)
Progressive Field
HOU
2
CLE
0
HOU Starter
Peter Lambert
6 IP · 3 H · 0 ER · 8 K · 3 BB · 96 PC
HOU Batters
Yordan Alvarez 3-4 (1 HR, 2 RBI)
Insight
Peter Lambert was electric, going 6 innings with 8 strikeouts and allowing nothing, and Yordan Alvarez hit a home run with 2 RBI to provide all the offense Houston needed. The Astros starting pitching has been trending up recently and tonight was a great example of that.
CLE Starter
Tanner Bibee
6 IP · 5 H · 2 ER · 3 K · 2 BB · 95 PC
CLE Batters
Chase DeLauter 2-4
Insight
Cleveland was shut out 2-0 and their offense is on the Watch list right now, making this a tough night to score against a sharp Lambert. Tanner Bibee gave up 2 runs in 6 innings but it was enough to lose.
Philadelphia Phillies (PHI) @ Chicago Cubs (CHC)
Wrigley Field
PHI
2
CHC
7
PHI Starter
Kyle Backhus
1 IP · 2 H · 1 ER · 1 K · 0 BB · 15 PC
PHI Batters
Edmundo Sosa 2-2 (1 RBI)
Alec Bohm 2-4 (1 R)
Insight
Kyle Backhus lasted just 1 inning for Philadelphia and the Phillies were never really in this one, falling 7-2 in Chicago. Edmundo Sosa and Alec Bohm each had multi-hit games but it was not enough.
CHC Starter
Matthew Boyd
4.2 IP · 5 H · 2 ER · 5 K · 0 BB · 84 PC
CHC Batters
Seiya Suzuki 2-4 (1 HR, 2 RBI)
Pete Crow-Armstrong 3-4 (2 RBI)
Michael Busch 2-4 (1 HR, 1 RBI)
Insight
Seiya Suzuki hit a home run with 2 RBI and Pete Crow-Armstrong added 3 hits and 2 RBI to pace a big Cubs offense night. Michael Busch also went deep as Chicago rolled to a 7-2 win.
New York Yankees (NYY) @ Boston Red Sox (BOS)
Fenway Park
NYY
4
BOS
1
NYY Starter
Max Fried
8 IP · 3 H · 0 ER · 9 K · 2 BB · 100 PC
NYY Batters
Giancarlo Stanton 2-4 (1 R)
Insight
Max Fried was dominant, going 8 innings with 9 strikeouts and no runs allowed, a big bounceback after a rough few starts. New York won 4-1 behind one of the best pitching performances you will see this season.
BOS Starter
Ranger Suarez
4.2 IP · 5 H · 4 ER · 4 K · 2 BB · 71 PC
BOS Batters
Jarren Duran 3-4 (1 RBI)
Insight
Ranger Suarez had back-to-back shutout starts before tonight but got tagged for 4 runs in under 5 innings against the Yankees. Boston's offense managed just 1 run and could not give the bullpen anything to work with.
Chicago White Sox (CWS) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (ARI)
Chase Field
CWS
7
ARI
11
CWS Starter
Anthony Kay
3.2 IP · 8 H · 8 ER · 1 K · 3 BB · 92 PC
CWS Batters
Munetaka Murakami 3-5 (1 HR, 2 RBI)
Miguel Vargas 2-4 (1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB)
Everson Pereira 2-4 (1 BB)
Insight
Anthony Kay gave up 8 runs in just 3.2 innings and the White Sox were buried early in an 11-7 loss. Munetaka Murakami and Miguel Vargas both homered to keep it interesting but the early damage was too much to overcome.
ARI Starter
Eduardo Rodriguez
5 IP · 6 H · 4 ER · 4 K · 3 BB · 96 PC
ARI Batters
Nolan Arenado 4-4 (1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB)
Ildemaro Vargas 2-5 (2 HR, 5 RBI)
Corbin Carroll 3-4 (1 RBI, 1 BB)
Insight
Ildemaro Vargas went 2-for-5 with two home runs and 5 RBI to be the standout of a huge Arizona night. Nolan Arenado also homered and went 4-for-4 as the Diamondbacks rolled to an 11-7 win with their offense firing on all cylinders.
Rolling Performance Tables
Bullpen Rankings
📊 Sorted by 7d ERA
📅 7d / 14d / 28d ERA — Rolling ERA.
🔬 FIP — If ERA > FIP then the bullpen should get better.
⚡ K% — Strikeout rate. Higher is better.
📈 Momentum — (28d - 7d). Positive = Good. Negative = Bad.
🎯 Signal — Value = Target. Fade = Avoid. Watch = Mixed signals.
# Team 7d ERA 14d 28d FIP K% Mom. Signal
1 SF 0.89 2.02 3.44 2.76 29.0% +8 Value
2 CHC 1.43 2.57 3.08 2.47 25.1% +1 Neutral
3 CIN 2.15 2.64 2.54 2.70 23.8% -2 Neutral
4 BOS 2.48 3.40 3.55 2.35 18.8% +6 Value
5 MIA 3.05 3.33 3.23 2.68 32.0% +1 Neutral
6 SD 3.13 2.68 3.06 3.06 27.8% -4 Watch
7 COL 3.26 3.72 3.36 3.71 28.4% 0 Neutral
8 ATL 3.29 5.23 3.22 4.56 23.6% -3 Watch
9 BAL 3.45 3.69 3.68 4.33 28.7% +3 Watch
10 WSH 3.50 4.54 5.37 3.32 17.3% +16 Value
11 MIN 3.56 4.53 4.69 2.82 20.8% +11 Value
12 ARI 3.60 3.51 4.62 4.21 19.7% +8 Value
13 PIT 4.11 3.41 3.65 3.43 22.4% -2 Neutral
14 CLE 4.23 6.18 4.69 3.90 26.8% +7 Value
15 NYM 4.24 5.97 3.72 3.99 21.1% -2 Neutral
16 TEX 4.25 4.85 3.10 3.19 21.0% -12 Fade
17 ATH 4.41 3.79 4.36 4.04 21.1% 0 Neutral
18 PHI 4.67 4.92 4.47 5.88 19.0% +1 Neutral
19 STL 4.71 5.00 5.17 4.77 19.2% +6 Value
20 LAA 4.74 6.43 4.75 3.33 22.2% +3 Watch
21 SEA 4.74 4.78 3.44 3.59 21.0% -13 Fade
22 HOU 4.75 4.56 5.76 4.62 17.8% +6 Value
23 TB 4.85 4.75 5.64 5.46 24.0% +4 Watch
24 MIL 4.88 6.13 4.20 4.10 19.1% -9 Fade
25 TOR 5.69 3.77 5.06 3.73 22.5% -1 Neutral
26 CWS 6.00 5.82 6.02 5.88 18.7% +3 Watch
27 NYY 6.38 5.40 4.18 5.65 19.0% -13 Neutral
28 KC 7.80 6.14 6.61 6.29 19.6% +2 Neutral
29 DET 8.00 5.39 4.42 3.99 16.1% -11 Fade
30 LAD 8.80 5.78 4.27 4.98 21.4% -14 Neutral
SP Rotation Rankings
📊 Sorted by FIP — High ERA + low FIP = ERA likely to drop.
📅 7d / 14d / 28d ERA — Rolling ERA.
🔬 FIP — Strips out defense and luck. Future predictor for ERA.
⚡ K-BB% — If > 15% = Good. < 8% = Bad.
🚶 WHIP — Measures baserunner control and game flow impact.
📈 Momentum — (28d - 7d). Positive = Good. Negative = Bad.
🎯 Signal — Value = Target. Fade = Avoid. Watch = Mixed signals.
# Team 7d ERA 14d 28d FIP K-BB% WHIP Mom. Signal
1 PIT 3.18 3.27 3.07 2.28 17.8% 0.97 +3 Watch
2 MIL 1.86 2.35 3.31 2.31 14.5% 1.03 +11 Value
3 MIN 2.64 3.48 3.53 2.44 18.2% 1.03 0 Neutral
4 DET 2.27 1.76 3.19 2.45 16.7% 1.08 -3 Watch
5 LAD 2.45 2.54 2.97 2.47 14.7% 1.09 +2 Neutral
6 NYY 1.58 2.98 2.80 2.62 18.5% 0.80 -4 Watch
7 SD 3.71 3.37 3.75 2.69 14.4% 1.31 -1 Neutral
8 LAA 1.98 2.85 3.66 2.91 15.1% 1.18 0 Neutral
9 TOR 2.94 5.28 4.21 2.95 14.2% 1.19 +2 Neutral
10 MIA 3.74 4.70 4.45 3.39 11.3% 1.25 +10 Value
11 SF 3.03 4.54 3.93 3.58 12.2% 1.12 +8 Value
12 CHC 2.24 3.91 3.40 3.63 9.6% 1.05 0 Neutral
13 CLE 3.67 4.17 3.51 3.75 14.9% 1.18 +3 Watch
14 HOU 4.95 6.67 5.85 3.96 10.7% 1.56 +7 Value
15 CIN 3.55 5.01 4.35 3.97 3.6% 1.34 +7 Value
16 TEX 4.10 3.93 3.97 4.21 10.2% 1.47 -2 Neutral
17 SEA 3.38 3.93 3.41 4.31 13.3% 1.45 -12 Fade
18 ATL 4.44 3.67 3.19 4.40 15.4% 1.34 0 Neutral
19 COL 5.65 6.07 5.19 4.61 12.1% 1.59 +9 Value
20 BOS 5.15 5.55 5.05 4.75 10.9% 1.31 +4 Watch
21 PHI 6.38 6.58 5.37 4.81 10.2% 1.92 -12 Neutral
22 TB 5.61 4.19 4.01 4.86 12.8% 1.44 -7 Neutral
23 NYM 5.10 4.68 4.22 4.88 13.8% 1.09 -13 Neutral
24 STL 3.94 4.43 4.54 5.01 10.2% 1.28 +3 Watch
25 BAL 5.09 4.69 4.44 5.08 9.0% 1.59 -8 Fade
26 CWS 4.87 3.95 4.45 5.52 4.4% 1.12 -1 Neutral
27 ARI 9.69 6.24 4.59 5.93 9.8% 2.02 -1 Neutral
28 ATH 6.77 4.67 4.95 6.16 10.1% 1.70 +1 Neutral
29 WSH 7.26 6.38 6.07 6.23 13.6% 1.52 +1 Neutral
30 KC 6.76 4.11 3.77 6.48 4.7% 1.56 -7 Neutral
Team Batting Rankings
📊 Sorted by 7d R/G
📅 7d / 14d / 28d R/G — Runs per game over each rolling window.
💥 OPS — If > .800 = Good. If < .670 = Bad
🎯 wRC+ — Measures offense against the league average. 100 = league average. 110 = 10% above average.
📈 Momentum — 28d rank - 7d rank. Positive = Trending up.
🎯 Signal — Value = Hot. Fade = Cold. Watch = Neutral.
# Team 7d R/G 14d 28d OPS wRC+ Mom. Signal
1 CWS 7.17 4.92 3.96 0.653 175 +20 Value
2 ARI 6.40 5.83 4.79 0.701 156 +10 Value
3 ATL 6.17 6.42 5.72 0.794 124 -2 Neutral
4 CHC 6.17 6.25 5.25 0.749 148 +1 Neutral
5 WSH 6.14 5.46 5.68 0.742 105 -3 Watch
6 NYY 6.00 4.92 4.83 0.719 142 +4 Watch
7 PIT 5.67 5.67 5.08 0.736 113 0 Neutral
8 STL 5.33 4.42 4.67 0.704 82 +5 Value
9 MIL 5.17 4.55 5.13 0.714 91 -3 Watch
10 DET 5.00 4.31 4.36 0.704 114 +6 Neutral
11 ATH 4.86 4.29 4.24 0.683 128 +6 Value
12 BAL 4.86 5.08 4.44 0.698 78 +3 Watch
13 LAD 4.83 4.92 5.58 0.858 125 -10 Fade
14 CIN 4.71 4.54 3.88 0.632 61 +8 Value
15 TEX 4.67 4.75 4.21 0.709 108 +3 Watch
16 HOU 4.57 4.46 5.27 0.785 102 -12 Fade
17 KC 4.57 3.31 3.20 0.648 107 +13 Value
18 LAA 4.57 5.77 4.85 0.731 103 -9 Fade
19 SF 4.33 3.64 3.52 0.654 99 +8 Value
20 CLE 4.29 4.54 3.81 0.695 103 +4 Watch
21 TB 4.29 5.08 4.83 0.716 93 -10 Neutral
22 COL 4.00 3.62 4.00 0.688 92 -2 Neutral
23 MIA 4.00 4.08 4.48 0.722 101 -9 Neutral
24 TOR 4.00 4.50 3.79 0.690 98 +1 Neutral
25 SEA 3.57 4.69 3.88 0.664 114 -2 Neutral
26 MIN 3.20 5.17 4.96 0.712 72 -18 Fade
27 NYM 2.60 1.92 3.25 0.625 85 +2 Neutral
28 SD 2.50 4.50 4.17 0.684 60 -9 Fade
29 BOS 2.17 3.83 3.75 0.654 41 -3 Watch
30 PHI 1.67 3.33 3.42 0.666 45 -2 Neutral
Table Insights
Extracted from rolling tables above.
Strongest
DET Fade
FADE: The Detroit bullpen has been a mess this week, giving up runs at an alarming rate and ranking 29th out of 30 teams. They've been getting lit up even against easier competition. Avoid backing Detroit when the game gets to their relief pitchers.
SF Value
VALUE: The San Francisco bullpen is the best in baseball right now, ranking 1st over the last week and holding opponents to under a run per game. They're doing this against tough competition, which makes it even more impressive. Back the Giants when their bullpen is in play late in games.
SEA Fade
FADE: Seattle's bullpen has been struggling lately, allowing nearly 5 runs per 9 innings this past week with a high number of baserunners allowed. Their momentum is trending in the wrong direction right now. Avoid the Mariners in close games where the bullpen will be heavily used.
TEX Fade
FADE: The Texas bullpen has been sliding over the past two weeks and the team's momentum is pointing downward. They've been giving up runs consistently, ranking in the bottom half of the league. Fade the Rangers in games that figure to be decided by the relief corps.
COL Value
WATCH: Colorado's rotation has been rough all month, ranking near the bottom of the league over both the last two weeks and the last month. The team's momentum is up a bit, but the starters are still giving up a lot of runs. Avoid backing Colorado's starters until we see more consistent outings.
BAL Fade
FADE: Baltimore's starting pitchers have been giving up over 5 runs per 9 innings this past week and the results have been consistently bad across the last month too. The team's momentum is sliding in the wrong direction. Fade the Orioles when relying on their rotation to keep them in games.
MIA Value
VALUE: Miami's starters have been solid this week, ranking 10th in the league while pitching against a tough schedule. Their momentum is trending up and the rotation has been keeping games close. Back the Marlins when one of their starters takes the mound this week.
MIL Value
VALUE: Milwaukee's starting pitchers have been among the best in baseball lately, ranking 2nd this week and 2nd over the last two weeks as well. They're giving up fewer than 2 runs per 9 innings this week, which is outstanding. Back the Brewers when their starters are on the hill.
ARI Value
VALUE: Arizona's lineup is one of the hottest in baseball right now, scoring 6.4 runs per game and ranking 2nd in the league this week. They're doing it against tough competition, which makes it stand out even more. Back the Diamondbacks to put up runs this week.
CIN Value
FADE: Cincinnati's offense has been one of the coldest in the league, scoring under 5 runs a game and ranking near the middle of the pack despite a manageable schedule. Their numbers have been getting worse over the past month. Avoid counting on the Reds' bats to carry them right now.
Injury & Lineup Log
Player Team Status Injury Impact
Bailey Horn DET 60-day IL 60-day IL — Left elbow arthroscopy recovery Detroit Tigers placed LHP Bailey Horn on the 60-day injured list. Left elbow arthroscopy recovery.
Ryan Helsley BAL 10-day IL IL Baltimore Orioles placed RHP Ryan Helsley on the bereavement list.
Wyatt Langford TEX 10-day IL 10-day IL — Right forearm strain Texas Rangers placed LF Wyatt Langford on the 10-day injured list. Right forearm strain.
Max Lazar PHI 60-day IL 60-day IL — Left oblique strain Philadelphia Phillies transferred RHP Max Lazar from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Left oblique strain.
Triston Casas BOS 60-day IL 60-day IL — Recovery from left patellar tendon repair Boston Red Sox transferred 1B Triston Casas from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Recovery from left patellar tendon repair.
Denzel Clarke ATH 10-day IL 10-day IL — Mid foot bone bruise in right foot Athletics placed CF Denzel Clarke on the 10-day injured list. Mid foot bone bruise in right foot.
J.T. Realmuto PHI 10-day IL 10-day IL — Back spasms Philadelphia Phillies placed C J.T. Realmuto on the 10-day injured list. Back spasms.
Bryan Hoeing SD 60-day IL 60-day IL — Torn right elbow flexor tendon San Diego Padres transferred RHP Bryan Hoeing from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Torn right elbow flexor tendon.
Bryan Hoeing SD 60-day IL 60-day IL — Torn right elbow flexor tendon San Diego Padres transferred RHP Bryan Hoeing from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Torn right elbow flexor tendon.
Ryan Weathers NYY 10-day IL IL New York Yankees placed LHP Ryan Weathers on the paternity list.
Activated from IL
NYM: Juan Soto — activated from IL
CHC: Matthew Boyd — activated from IL

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⚾ Batters — AVG/OBP/SLG/HR/K/RBI over last 7/10/21 games
⚾ Pitchers — ERA/WHIP/K/BB over last 2/3/4 starts
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Methodology
Rolling windows — 7, 14, and 28-day stats from completed games only. Postponed games excluded.
Momentum — rank_28d - rank_7d. Positive = outperforming recent baseline. Negative = declining.
Schedule strength — Value on Hard schedule is stronger.
ERA-FIP gap — ERA minus FIP. Gap over 1.0 = ERA likely to regress down (unlucky). Under -1.0 = may regress up.
Signals — Value = momentum +5 or more on Avg/Hard. Fade = -5 or worse on Easy/Avg.
Straight rolling ERA with no leverage weighting.
Compass publishes statistical analysis and insights for informational purposes only. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes betting advice.
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