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Tuesday, May 5 13 games · full slate
Game Recaps
Minnesota Twins (MIN) @ Washington Nationals (WSH)
Nationals Park
MIN
11
WSH
3
MIN Starter
Taj Bradley
6 IP · 4 H · 2 ER · 8 K · 2 BB · 96 PC
MIN Batters
Brooks Lee 3-5 (3 RBI)
Trevor Larnach 2-5 (2 RBI)
Insight
Taj Bradley dealt for 6 innings and struck out 8, and Brooks Lee backed him up with 3 hits and 3 RBI in the blowout win.
WSH Starter
Cade Cavalli
4 IP · 5 H · 3 ER · 2 K · 3 BB · 76 PC
WSH Batters
Curtis Mead 2-4 (1 RBI)
José Tena 2-3 (1 R, 1 BB)
Insight
Cade Cavalli lasted just 4 innings and the Nationals offense couldn't do much either, leading to a lopsided loss at home.
Toronto Blue Jays (TOR) @ Tampa Bay Rays (TB)
Tropicana Field
TOR
3
TB
4
TOR Starter
Kevin Gausman
6 IP · 6 H · 2 ER · 3 K · 1 BB · 96 PC
TOR Batters
Kazuma Okamoto 2-4 (1 HR, 1 RBI)
Andrés Giménez 2-4 (1 RBI)
Insight
Kevin Gausman kept it close with a solid 6-inning outing but the Blue Jays bullpen couldn't hold it and Toronto dropped a one-run game.
TB Starter
Drew Rasmussen
6 IP · 7 H · 3 ER · 5 K · 1 BB · 85 PC
TB Batters
Jonathan Aranda 2-4 (1 RBI)
Ben Williamson 2-4 (1 RBI)
Chandler Simpson 2-4 (1 R)
Insight
The Rays got contributions all over the lineup and held on for a 4-3 win, with three different guys picking up two hits each.
Atlanta Braves (ATL) @ Seattle Mariners (SEA)
T-Mobile Park
ATL
3
SEA
2
ATL Starter
Bryce Elder
6 IP · 2 H · 2 ER · 9 K · 3 BB · 93 PC
ATL Batters
Matt Olson 2-3 (1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB)
Mauricio Dubón 2-3 (2 RBI, 1 BB)
Insight
Bryce Elder struck out 9 in 6 innings and Matt Olson and Mauricio Dubon did the damage offensively to squeak out the road win.
SEA Starter
George Kirby
7 IP · 5 H · 2 ER · 5 K · 1 BB · 88 PC
SEA Batters
Josh Naylor 2-3 (1 BB)
Insight
George Kirby was really good again, giving up just 2 runs over 7 innings, but the Mariners offense couldn't get him the win.
San Diego Padres (SD) @ San Francisco Giants (SF)
Oracle Park
SD
10
SF
5
SD Starter
Walker Buehler
5.1 IP · 7 H · 4 ER · 5 K · 0 BB · 82 PC
SD Batters
Jackson Merrill 3-5 (2 RBI)
Xander Bogaerts 2-4 (1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB)
Miguel Andujar 3-5 (1 RBI)
Insight
Jackson Merrill and Miguel Andujar each had 3 hits and the Padres offense went off for 10 runs against the Giants, a big bounce-back for a lineup that had been struggling.
SF Starter
Logan Webb
4 IP · 7 H · 6 ER · 4 K · 0 BB · 62 PC
SF Batters
Jesus Rodriguez 2-3 (1 HR, 2 RBI)
Insight
Logan Webb got knocked around early, giving up 6 runs in just 4 innings, and the Giants bullpen couldn't stop the bleeding either.
Athletics (ATH) @ Philadelphia Phillies (PHI)
Citizens Bank Park
ATH
1
PHI
9
ATH Starter
Luis Severino
5 IP · 7 H · 1 ER · 3 K · 2 BB · 102 PC
ATH Batters
Nothing Noteworthy
Insight
The Athletics managed just 1 run against Cristopher Sanchez, who was absolutely dealing with 10 strikeouts over 8 shutout innings.
PHI Starter
Cristopher Sánchez
8 IP · 3 H · 0 ER · 10 K · 1 BB · 97 PC
PHI Batters
Bryce Harper 3-4 (2 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB)
Bryson Stott 2-4 (1 HR, 2 RBI)
Brandon Marsh 3-5 (1 R)
Insight
Bryce Harper went off with 2 home runs and 3 RBI, and Sanchez backed him up with one of the best starts you'll see all year in a 9-1 blowout.
Texas Rangers (TEX) @ New York Yankees (NYY)
Yankee Stadium
TEX
4
NYY
7
TEX Starter
Jacob deGrom
6.1 IP · 7 H · 6 ER · 7 K · 1 BB · 94 PC
TEX Batters
Ezequiel Duran 3-4 (1 RBI, 1 BB)
Josh Jung 3-5 (1 R)
Andrew McCutchen 2-4
Insight
Jacob deGrom had been sharp in his last three starts but got touched up for 6 runs tonight in a rough outing that cost Texas the game.
NYY Starter
Elmer Rodríguez
4.2 IP · 6 H · 3 ER · 2 K · 4 BB · 94 PC
NYY Batters
Ryan McMahon 2-4 (1 HR, 2 RBI)
Paul Goldschmidt 2-4 (1 HR, 1 RBI)
Cody Bellinger 2-3 (3 RBI, 1 BB)
Insight
Cody Bellinger drove in 3 and Ryan McMahon and Paul Goldschmidt each went deep to power the Yankees to a 7-4 win.
Baltimore Orioles (BAL) @ Miami Marlins (MIA)
loanDepot park
BAL
9
MIA
7
BAL Starter
Chris Bassitt
4 IP · 6 H · 4 ER · 3 K · 3 BB · 76 PC
BAL Batters
Samuel Basallo 3-4 (4 RBI)
Pete Alonso 2-3 (2 RBI, 2 BB)
Insight
Samuel Basallo came through with 3 hits and 4 RBI, and the Orioles held on despite a rough outing from Chris Bassitt who gave up 4 runs in 4 innings.
MIA Starter
Sandy Alcantara
4.1 IP · 8 H · 7 ER · 5 K · 3 BB · 106 PC
MIA Batters
Liam Hicks 4-5 (1 HR, 3 RBI)
Joe Mack 2-4 (1 RBI)
Insight
Sandy Alcantara got lit up for 7 runs in just 4.1 innings, and despite Liam Hicks going 4-for-5 with a homer and 3 RBI, Miami couldn't overcome the early hole.
Chicago White Sox (CWS) @ Los Angeles Angels (LAA)
Angel Stadium
CWS
3
LAA
4
CWS Starter
Erick Fedde
4.2 IP · 6 H · 4 ER · 2 K · 2 BB · 75 PC
CWS Batters
Chase Meidroth 2-5 (1 HR, 1 RBI)
Andrew Benintendi 2-4
Insight
Erick Fedde gave up 4 runs and couldn't get out of the fifth, and the White Sox fell short in a one-run game.
LAA Starter
Sam Aldegheri
4 IP · 4 H · 2 ER · 0 K · 2 BB · 69 PC
LAA Batters
Zach Neto 2-4 (1 HR, 1 RBI)
Mike Trout 2-2 (1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BB)
Insight
Mike Trout went 2-for-2 with a homer and two walks, and Zach Neto also went deep as the Angels edged out a 4-3 win.
Cleveland Guardians (CLE) @ Kansas City Royals (KC)
Kauffman Stadium
CLE
3
KC
5
CLE Starter
Gavin Williams
6 IP · 8 H · 5 ER · 7 K · 2 BB · 97 PC
CLE Batters
Nothing Noteworthy
Insight
Gavin Williams gave up 5 runs in 6 innings after looking sharp in his last start, and Cleveland's offense couldn't get enough going to bail him out.
KC Starter
Stephen Kolek
6 IP · 4 H · 3 ER · 3 K · 0 BB · 83 PC
KC Batters
Isaac Collins 3-3 (1 HR, 1 RBI)
Michael Massey 2-3 (1 HR, 2 RBI)
Bobby Witt Jr. 2-4 (1 R)
Insight
Isaac Collins went 3-for-3 with a homer and Michael Massey also went deep as the Royals offense kept rolling in a 5-3 win.
Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD) @ Houston Astros (HOU)
Daikin Park
LAD
1
HOU
2
LAD Starter
Shohei Ohtani
7 IP · 4 H · 2 ER · 8 K · 0 BB · 89 PC
LAD Batters
Andy Pages 3-4
Insight
Shohei Ohtani was excellent again, striking out 8 over 7 innings, but the Dodgers offense could only manage 1 run and took a tough loss.
HOU Starter
Peter Lambert
7 IP · 3 H · 0 ER · 4 K · 4 BB · 104 PC
HOU Batters
Braden Shewmake 2-3 (1 HR, 1 RBI)
Insight
Peter Lambert shut out the Dodgers over 7 innings in a big spot, and Braden Shewmake's solo homer turned out to be the difference in a 2-1 win.
Boston Red Sox (BOS) @ Detroit Tigers (DET)
Comerica Park
BOS
10
DET
3
BOS Starter
Jovani Morán
1 IP · 3 H · 2 ER · 3 K · 2 BB · 38 PC
BOS Batters
Ceddanne Rafaela 3-5 (1 HR, 4 RBI)
Wilyer Abreu 3-4 (1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB)
Caleb Durbin 2-5 (1 RBI)
Insight
Ceddanne Rafaela went 3-for-5 with a homer and 4 RBI to lead a 10-run Boston offensive explosion on the road.
DET Starter
Framber Valdez
3 IP · 9 H · 7 ER · 3 K · 1 BB · 60 PC
DET Batters
Matt Vierling 2-4 (1 HR, 1 RBI)
Insight
Framber Valdez had been solid in his recent starts but got crushed tonight, giving up 7 runs on 9 hits in just 3 innings in a rough blowup.
Cincinnati Reds (CIN) @ Chicago Cubs (CHC)
Wrigley Field
CIN
2
CHC
3
CIN Starter
Andrew Abbott
5.2 IP · 4 H · 0 ER · 4 K · 4 BB · 98 PC
CIN Batters
Nathaniel Lowe 2-4 (1 HR, 1 RBI)
Insight
Andrew Abbott kept Cincinnati in it with a solid outing but the Reds couldn't get the offense going and lost a tight one.
CHC Starter
Jameson Taillon
5.2 IP · 5 H · 2 ER · 5 K · 1 BB · 100 PC
CHC Batters
Michael Busch 3-4 (1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB)
Insight
Michael Busch went 3-for-4 with a homer and 2 RBI to power the Cubs to a 3-2 win, which goes against a trend of the offense struggling lately.
Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (ARI)
Chase Field
PIT
0
ARI
9
PIT Starter
Bubba Chandler
5 IP · 2 H · 2 ER · 4 K · 6 BB · 92 PC
PIT Batters
Nothing Noteworthy
Insight
Pittsburgh was shut out completely and Bubba Chandler walked 6 batters in 5 innings, making it a long night for the Pirates.
ARI Starter
Eduardo Rodriguez
7 IP · 2 H · 0 ER · 7 K · 3 BB · 103 PC
ARI Batters
Ketel Marte 2-5 (2 RBI)
Gabriel Moreno 2-4 (1 RBI)
Insight
Eduardo Rodriguez was dominant with 7 strikeouts over 7 shutout innings, a big bounceback after giving up 4 runs in each of his last two starts.
Rolling Performance Tables
Bullpen Rankings
📊 Sorted by 7d ERA
📅 7d / 14d / 28d ERA — Rolling ERA.
🔬 FIP — If ERA > FIP then the bullpen should get better.
⚡ K% — Strikeout rate. Higher is better.
📈 Momentum — (28d - 7d). Positive = Good. Negative = Bad.
🎯 Signal — Value = Target. Fade = Avoid. Watch = Mixed signals.
# Team 7d ERA 14d 28d FIP K% Mom. Signal
1 TB 0.39 1.07 3.01 1.98 20.7% +1 Neutral
2 NYY 1.23 2.21 3.57 1.78 25.9% +7 Neutral
3 SEA 1.55 2.17 3.45 2.41 31.0% +4 Watch
4 CWS 1.56 2.36 3.94 1.60 28.8% +7 Neutral
5 KC 1.76 1.64 4.27 3.30 20.0% +11 Value
6 TEX 2.20 2.72 3.35 3.65 15.9% 0 Neutral
7 MIA 2.28 3.89 3.50 2.76 22.8% +1 Neutral
8 LAD 2.31 3.06 4.30 1.75 29.1% +10 Neutral
9 DET 2.39 3.15 3.93 2.60 27.0% +1 Neutral
10 MIL 2.45 2.90 4.19 2.87 26.1% +4 Watch
11 SD 2.57 6.18 4.02 3.86 26.8% +1 Neutral
12 CLE 2.84 2.39 4.35 3.47 21.7% +7 Value
13 ARI 2.92 5.70 4.39 3.24 23.3% +8 Value
14 WSH 2.99 3.45 4.26 3.43 12.4% +1 Neutral
15 LAA 3.24 6.27 6.20 3.60 24.5% +15 Value
16 ATL 3.32 3.37 4.30 3.18 31.3% +1 Neutral
17 BOS 3.37 2.99 3.24 3.47 20.8% -13 Fade
18 STL 3.48 3.99 4.51 4.36 18.4% +5 Value
19 NYM 3.49 3.72 4.86 2.50 31.6% +5 Neutral
20 CHC 3.50 3.90 3.33 3.88 29.2% -15 Fade
21 PHI 3.60 3.27 4.06 2.83 20.3% -8 Fade
22 TOR 3.63 3.16 3.15 1.71 23.7% -19 Fade
23 SF 4.04 2.82 2.37 4.17 11.5% -22 Fade
24 MIN 5.78 6.03 5.70 4.79 13.4% +4 Watch
25 HOU 5.85 6.91 6.04 4.98 21.1% +4 Watch
26 COL 7.59 7.17 5.00 4.44 23.3% 0 Neutral
27 PIT 8.18 5.11 4.35 3.16 19.3% -7 Fade
28 ATH 8.48 5.96 4.51 6.60 14.8% -6 Fade
29 BAL 9.38 7.80 5.54 5.90 14.6% -2 Neutral
30 CIN 9.71 7.44 4.94 6.45 20.0% -5 Neutral
SP Rotation Rankings
📊 Sorted by FIP — High ERA + low FIP = ERA likely to drop.
📅 7d / 14d / 28d ERA — Rolling ERA.
🔬 FIP — Strips out defense and luck. Future predictor for ERA.
⚡ K-BB% — If > 15% = Good. < 8% = Bad.
🚶 WHIP — Measures baserunner control and game flow impact.
📈 Momentum — (28d - 7d). Positive = Good. Negative = Bad.
🎯 Signal — Value = Target. Fade = Avoid. Watch = Mixed signals.
# Team 7d ERA 14d 28d FIP K-BB% WHIP Mom. Signal
1 PHI 1.89 3.78 4.95 2.02 24.8% 1.03 +5 Neutral
2 NYM 4.77 3.50 4.46 2.38 18.9% 1.21 +1 Neutral
3 TB 2.05 1.50 3.14 2.61 13.5% 1.11 +5 Neutral
4 MIL 3.78 3.57 3.20 2.68 20.6% 1.26 -3 Watch
5 MIA 5.64 4.09 4.55 3.13 13.5% 1.39 +4 Watch
6 STL 2.70 3.93 3.93 3.25 7.8% 1.26 +14 Value
7 SF 3.98 4.53 4.58 3.45 20.9% 1.09 +10 Neutral
8 PIT 3.81 4.81 3.97 3.52 17.4% 1.22 -6 Fade
9 TEX 6.65 5.37 4.46 3.57 21.1% 1.24 +7 Value
10 NYY 3.19 2.66 3.01 3.71 8.6% 1.48 -6 Fade
11 SEA 4.54 5.53 4.53 3.87 17.7% 1.19 +8 Value
12 WSH 3.67 3.69 4.81 3.88 8.2% 1.52 +14 Value
13 HOU 2.49 2.98 5.20 3.97 2.6% 1.58 +11 Neutral
14 LAA 4.24 4.71 4.07 4.08 9.6% 1.52 -4 Watch
15 CHC 2.92 5.00 4.41 4.15 19.3% 1.05 -4 Watch
16 KC 4.33 4.85 4.42 4.21 12.9% 1.30 -2 Neutral
17 BOS 4.37 4.21 4.50 4.23 10.1% 1.42 +10 Neutral
18 CWS 2.02 3.41 3.18 4.39 18.2% 1.01 -6 Fade
19 ARI 7.29 6.83 6.23 4.51 5.8% 1.87 +10 Value
20 DET 5.12 5.70 3.89 4.67 16.2% 1.39 -13 Fade
21 TOR 3.93 4.62 4.77 4.68 9.5% 1.31 +1 Neutral
22 ATH 4.71 3.80 4.23 4.73 9.9% 1.60 +1 Neutral
23 LAD 3.56 2.66 2.60 4.79 18.3% 1.16 -18 Fade
24 ATL 4.07 3.65 3.42 4.80 8.2% 1.54 -6 Fade
25 CIN 5.91 5.88 5.47 5.07 2.7% 1.59 0 Neutral
26 MIN 3.41 4.53 3.95 5.17 11.6% 1.17 -13 Fade
27 CLE 6.19 5.37 4.68 5.47 16.9% 1.44 -6 Fade
28 SD 6.19 6.60 4.74 5.47 5.6% 1.47 -13 Fade
29 COL 5.69 4.51 5.23 6.30 6.7% 1.41 +1 Neutral
30 BAL 7.11 6.51 5.26 6.33 5.0% 1.79 -2 Neutral
Team Batting Rankings
📊 Sorted by 7d R/G
📅 7d / 14d / 28d R/G — Runs per game over each rolling window.
💥 OPS — If > .800 = Good. If < .670 = Bad
🎯 wRC+ — Measures offense against the league average. 100 = league average. 110 = 10% above average.
📈 Momentum — 28d rank - 7d rank. Positive = Trending up.
🎯 Signal — Value = Hot. Fade = Cold. Watch = Neutral.
# Team 7d R/G 14d 28d OPS wRC+ Mom. Signal
1 NYY 7.67 6.54 5.65 0.775 163 +2 Neutral
2 PIT 6.00 5.08 5.12 0.720 130 +3 Watch
3 ATL 5.86 5.92 6.16 0.797 132 -2 Neutral
4 MIN 5.33 4.54 5.08 0.707 107 +2 Neutral
5 CLE 5.17 3.83 4.60 0.698 104 +5 Value
6 ATH 5.00 4.36 4.28 0.721 139 +16 Value
7 TOR 4.86 4.23 4.40 0.696 121 +11 Value
8 CHC 4.83 5.31 5.72 0.780 114 -6 Fade
9 COL 4.57 4.38 4.04 0.722 97 +15 Value
10 STL 4.57 4.69 4.76 0.730 116 -1 Neutral
11 CWS 4.50 4.62 4.60 0.704 121 0 Neutral
12 WSH 4.50 3.92 4.52 0.708 78 +3 Watch
13 DET 4.43 4.69 4.54 0.736 83 -1 Neutral
14 KC 4.29 5.75 4.32 0.709 100 +6 Value
15 MIL 4.29 4.38 4.38 0.695 99 +4 Watch
16 ARI 4.17 5.00 5.26 0.723 97 -12 Neutral
17 BAL 4.14 4.67 4.76 0.712 81 -9 Neutral
18 BOS 3.83 4.31 4.24 0.668 118 +5 Neutral
19 PHI 3.71 4.23 3.72 0.671 92 +9 Neutral
20 SD 3.67 5.00 4.96 0.687 81 -13 Fade
21 MIA 3.50 3.75 4.04 0.711 107 +4 Watch
22 SEA 3.50 4.50 4.40 0.700 82 -5 Neutral
23 TB 3.33 3.83 4.29 0.704 95 -2 Neutral
24 LAD 3.17 3.85 4.48 0.794 99 -8 Fade
25 CIN 3.14 4.25 4.52 0.691 78 -12 Neutral
26 NYM 3.14 3.62 2.76 0.631 78 +4 Watch
27 TEX 2.80 2.83 3.75 0.690 82 0 Neutral
28 HOU 2.57 3.08 3.76 0.783 107 -2 Neutral
29 LAA 2.33 3.58 4.52 0.716 58 -15 Fade
30 SF 1.71 2.38 3.04 0.648 52 -1 Neutral
Table Insights
Extracted from rolling tables above.
Strongest
KC Value
VALUE: The Kansas City bullpen has been one of the best in baseball over the last two weeks, giving up almost no runs. They have been closing out games well too, converting 80% of their save chances. Back KC when their bullpen is in play this week.
TOR Fade
FADE: The Toronto bullpen looks worse than it actually is right now, but the results on the field have still been shaky over the past week. They have been giving up more baserunners and their momentum is heading in the wrong direction. Avoid Toronto in close games where the bullpen will be leaned on.
ATH Fade
FADE: The Oakland bullpen has been a disaster over the past week, giving up nearly 8.5 runs per nine innings. Things have not been much better over the last two weeks either. Stay away from Oakland in games where the bullpen is likely to see action.
PIT Fade
FADE: Pittsburgh's bullpen has been giving up a ton of runs lately, ranking near the bottom of the league over the past week. This has happened even against easier competition, which makes it harder to explain away. Avoid the Pirates in games that figure to be bullpen-heavy.
ARI Value
VALUE: Arizona starters have been getting hit hard lately, with a rough ERA over the last week and even tougher competition on the schedule. The numbers suggest they have been pitching worse than even their bad results show. Fade the Arizona rotation until things turn around.
MIN Fade
FADE: Minnesota starters have looked decent on the scoreboard recently, but the way they have been pitching suggests the good results may not stick around much longer. Their last two weeks have been trending in the wrong direction. Avoid backing Minnesota starters right now.
CWS Fade
FADE: Chicago White Sox starters have put up a low ERA recently, but the way they have actually been pitching suggests the results have looked better than they really are. The team's momentum is also heading the wrong way. Do not chase the good-looking numbers with Chicago starters this week.
LAD Fade
FADE: The Dodgers rotation has been solid over the past month, but things have slipped noticeably over the last week and their momentum has dropped sharply. Even with easier opponents lately, they have not been sharp. Hold off on backing Los Angeles starters until they find their groove again.
ATH Value
VALUE: Oakland's offense has been one of the hottest lineups in baseball over the past week, ranking 6th in the league in run scoring. They are averaging 5 runs a game and their hitters have been getting on base and doing damage. Back Oakland's offense while this hot stretch continues.
COL Value
VALUE: Colorado's lineup has been heating up lately, climbing into the top 10 in run scoring over the past week. Their momentum has been building and they have been putting up solid numbers at the plate. Keep an eye on the Rockies offense as a sneaky value this week.
Injury & Lineup Log
Player Team Status Injury Impact
Drew Thorpe CWS 60-day IL 60-day IL — Recovery from Tommy John surgery Chicago White Sox transferred RHP Drew Thorpe from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Recovery from Tommy John surgery.
Ramón Urías STL 10-day IL 10-day IL — Right elbow lateral epicondylitis St. Louis Cardinals placed 3B Ramón Urías on the 10-day injured list. Right elbow lateral epicondylitis.
Steven Matz TB 10-day IL 15-day IL — Left elbow inflammation Tampa Bay Rays placed LHP Steven Matz on the 15-day injured list retroactive to May 4, 2026. Left elbow inflammation.
Yainer Diaz HOU 10-day IL 10-day IL — Left oblique strain Houston Astros placed C Yainer Diaz on the 10-day injured list. Left oblique strain.
Josh Smith TEX 10-day IL 10-day IL — Right glute strain Texas Rangers placed 2B Josh Smith on the 10-day injured list retroactive to May 4, 2026. Right glute strain.
Jake Cronenworth SD 10-day IL 7-day IL — Concussion symptoms San Diego Padres placed 2B Jake Cronenworth on the 7-day injured list. Concussion symptoms.
Activated from IL
ATL: Raisel Iglesias — activated from IL
KC: Stephen Kolek — activated from IL
SD: Yuki Matsui — activated from IL
LAA: Kirby Yates — activated from IL
SF: Joel Peguero — activated from IL
HOU: Nick Allen — activated from IL
DET: Zach McKinstry — activated from IL
PHI: Jhoan Duran — activated from IL

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⚾ Batters — AVG/OBP/SLG/HR/K/RBI over last 7/10/21 games
⚾ Pitchers — ERA/WHIP/K/BB over last 2/3/4 starts
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Methodology
Rolling windows — 7, 14, and 28-day stats from completed games only. Postponed games excluded.
Momentum — rank_28d - rank_7d. Positive = outperforming recent baseline. Negative = declining.
Schedule strength — Value on Hard schedule is stronger.
ERA-FIP gap — ERA minus FIP. Gap over 1.0 = ERA likely to regress down (unlucky). Under -1.0 = may regress up.
Signals — Value = momentum +5 or more on Avg/Hard. Fade = -5 or worse on Easy/Avg.
Straight rolling ERA with no leverage weighting.
Compass publishes statistical analysis and insights for informational purposes only. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes betting advice.
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